AFL Norm Smith Medal Tips - Who Will Win The Norm Smith 2023?
Last updated: Sep 28, 2023, 3:22AM | Published: Sep 28, 2023, 1:34AM
The player adjudged the best on ground in the 2023 AFL Grand Final between Collingwood and Brisbane will be awarded the Norm Smith Medal, for which Stats Insider has used data and machine learning to find the most likely winner.
Our Norm Smith tips are based on simulating Collingwood vs Brisbane 10,000 times to determine the likelihood of each player leading the Norm Smith voting in 2023, with the three most likely players featured below.
| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nick Daicos (Collingwood) | 17.5% |
| Lachie Neale (Brisbane) | 16.5% |
| Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) | 11.3% |
The full list of 2023 Norm Smith Medal probabilities is available at the bottom of this page.
This year's Norm Smith medal odds are brought to you by Betfair.
Who Will Win the Norm Smith Medal 2023?
This year's AFL Grand Final is set to feature a host of big-game players, capable of winning games off their own boot, including Collingwood duo Nick Daicos and Jordan De Goey, and Brisbane's Lachie Neale.
Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
In our 10,000 simulations of the 2023 AFL Grand Final, Nick Daicos was adjudged the best player on the field in 17.5% of the simulations
Nick Daicos comes into the AFL Grand Final following a successful return from injury in Collingwood's one point win over GWS in the 2023 Preliminary Final. Daicos is one of the AFL's best players, with his ball use, ability to hit the scoreboard and prolific statistical prowess setting him apart.
If you're looking to back Nick Daicos to win the 2023 Norm Smith Medal, punters can get $5.50 on the Betfair Exchange.
Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
Brisbane on-baller Lachie Neale comes into Saturday's AFL Grand Final after winning the 2023 Brownlow Medal.
Neale brings great form into this matchup, having played a pivotal role in Brisbane's come from behind Preliminary Final win over Carlton. While Neale hasn't averaged as many possessions this season as he has previously, he has been much more damaging with his touches in 2023.
Punters wanting to back Lachie Neale to win the 2023 Norm Smith Medal can get $8.40 on the Betfair Exchange.
Jordan De Goey (Collingwood)
Dynamic Collingwood midfielder Jordan De Goey is one of the most explosive players in the AFL and capable of winning a game almost singlehandedly.
De Goey brings arguably the best form of his career into the AFL Grand Final, having gathered 34 disposals in a best-on-ground performance during Collingwood's win over GWS. If he can deliver that kind of performance on the big stage at the MCG for a second week in a row, the 2023 Norm Smith Medal will be in his possession by 5pm.
Punters wanting to back Jordan De Goey to win the 2023 Norm Smith Medal can get $8.40 on the Betfair Exchange.
Norm Smith Medal 2023 Probabilities
| Player | Probability | Betfair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos (Collingwood) | 17.5% | $5.5 |
| Lachie Neale (Brisbane) | 16.5% | $8.4 |
| Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) | 11.3% | $6.8 |
| Josh Dunkley (Brisbane) | 7.4% | $16 |
| Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane) | 6.4% | $16.5 |
| Charlie Cameron (Brisbane) | 3.5% | $27 |
| Dayne Zorko (Brisbane) | 3.4% | $50 |
| Jack Crisp (Collingwood) | 3.2% | $30 |
| Zac Bailey (Brisbane) | 2.7% | $44 |
| Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) | 2.7% | $32 |
| Darcy Moore (Collingwood) | 2.5% | $34 |
| Cam Rayner (Brisbane) | 2.3% | $46 |
| Joe Daniher (Brisbane) | 2.3% | $32 |
| Josh Daicos (Collingwood) | 2.2% | $29 |
| Mason Cox (Collingwood) | 1.9% | $75 |
Odds correct as of 11am on September 28
Norm Smith Medallists
- Norm Smith Medal 2022: Isaac Smith (Geelong)
- Norm Smith Medal 2021: Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
- Norm Smith Medal 2020: Dustin Martin (Richmond)
- Norm Smith Medal 2019: Dustin Martin (Richmond)
- Norm Smith Medal 2018: Luke Shuey (West Coast)
- Norm Smith Medal 2017: Dustin Martin (Richmond)
- Norm Smith Medal 2016: Jason Johannisen (Western Bulldogs)
- Norm Smith Medal 2015: Cyril Rioli (Hawthorn)
- Norm Smith Medal 2014: Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
- Norm Smith Medal 2013: Brian Lake (Hawthorn)
- Norm Smith Medal 2012: Ryan O'Keefe (Sydney)
All of the Norm Smith Medal probabilities in this article are the result of 10,000 simulations of the 2023 AFL Grand Final. All odds listed are correct at the time of publication from Betfair and are subject to change.
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