AFL Pro Previews - Melbourne v Brisbane Lions, Round 5 2024

Brisbane head in to Round 5 sitting at 0-4 and it's last chance saloon for their Premiership hopes.

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions
Thursday 7:30pm, MCG

Melbourne 1.43
Brisbane Lions 2.85
Melbourne -15.5 / Brisbane Lions +15.5

Bet Right Markets

Changes:

📉 Kozzie Pickett gets a week off with suspension and the Demons bring in debutant Koltyn Tholstrup. Negative.

📈 Brisbane have named an unchanged side, although there was some doubt that Lachie Neale would take his place in his 250th game. No changes = Positive.

Head to Head:

Going back to 2021, these 2 teams have met 7 times and Melbourne leads the count 5-2.

The most recent meeting was R18 last year which the Demons won by 1 point in a cracking Friday night game at the MCG. 

They've met in 2 finals in that period - a 13-point win to Brisbane in the SF of 2022, and a 33-point QF win to Melbourne in their Premiership year.

At the MCG Melbourne have the edge, as expected given Brisbane's overall record there.

Last week:

The Demons tacked an extra week on to their Gather Round experience, managing to beat Port and Adelaide in consecutive weeks. Against the Crows, it was a 15-point win after getting out to 30+ points during the 3Q. The Crows won most of the Disposal stats as well as Inside 50s 54-48, but the Demons won Clearances 41-37, Contested Possessions 131-129 and Contested Marks 18-9, which was double their normal total. Interestingly, the free kick count was 21-9 to Adelaide.

The Lions finally got their first win of the season against North Melbourne, by 70 points. They had multiple avenues to goal and looked to have some swagger back, although North will let you do that. They dominated Inside 50s 71-31, Clearances 43-33, and Contested Possessions 148-122. North did win the tackle count 81-62 which can happen when you don't have a lot of the ball.

What we can expect this week:

Melbourne can keep winning, they've been excellent since their Round 1 defeat by Sydney, putting 4 wins together and must fancy themselves to make it 5 in a row.

Brisbane will jump better this week with a win on the board. It will have calmed them right down and now look to go on a run. 

This should go down to the wire, so the start on the Lions looks very attractive with Bet Right just here.

Brisbane +15.5

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