AFL Pro Previews - Richmond v St Kilda, Round 4 2024

Gather Round Sunday starts in the Hills...

Richmond v St Kilda
Sunday, 3:20pm, Norwood Oval

Tigers 3.40
Saints 1.32
Tigers +19.5 (1.90) / Saints -19.5 (1.90)

Bet Right Markets

Changes:

📉 The Tigers have MORE injury worries and lose Tom Lynch and Noah Balta for the foreseeable future. Liam Baker also goes out for a week's suspension.

Coming back in are Dusty, Jack Graham, recruit Koschitzke from Hawthorn, debutant McAuliffe, Naismith and Hugo Ralphsmith. Unfortunately, that's a bunch of changes which might turn out OK but is really on the Negative side of things.

📈 The Saints get back Max King from suspension but lose Windhager for a week and add Collard, Garcia and Campbell to the squad. Max King is always a very decent Positive.

Head to Head:

These teams regularly play each other twice in a season, and the spoils are often shared with Richmond doing best at the MCG and the Saints proving hard to beat at Marvel.

St Kilda won the last meeting late in 2023 by 6 goals at Marvel when never really in doubt. Earlier in the season the Tigers won on a cold MCG Saturday night for Trent Cotchin's 300th game.

Last week:

The Tigers took on the rampaging Swans at the MCG with an undermanned side. They jumped out of the blocks but the Swans pegged them back with 5 straight goals and it looked like the Swans would just kick away. To their credit, the Tigers fought back, mainly through their lesser lights and a massive job from Nick Vlaustin down back. The final margin was just 5 points, but a thoroughly deserved win.

For most of the game against Essendon, St Kilda looked to have enough to get it done. Their biggest lead was 22 points and spent most of the game leading by around 10 points in a low scoring affair. They led by 7 points at 3QT and it all changed in the last quarter with Essendon stepping up their pressure to kick the last 2 goals of the game and win by 4 points. The key stats were fairly even but most favoured Essendon - Tackles 66-61, Clearances 37-32, Inside 50s 53-51 and overall disposals 417-392. This was a disappointing result and Ross Lyon would NOT have taken it well.

What we can expect this week:

Notwithstanding a smashing for 3 quarters by the Suns in Round 0, the TIgers have played decent consistent football this season. The list has been decimated by injury but the system has held up well and they've been in the game right until Q4 against Carlton and Port Adelaide in defeat. They'll do more of that again this week although Dusty must be touch and go given how fragile he's been over the last couple of seasons.

In order to bounce back quickly, the Saints will look to turn the screws early and get the game on the terms that Ross Lyon loves - lock it down, slingshot and isolate Max King within range.

The Tigers are running out of soldiers and the Saints will likely finish too strong for them and cover the 19.5 point line with Bet Right just here.

Saints -19.5

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