AFL Pro Previews - St Kilda v Western Bulldogs, Round 6 2024

Round 6 kicks off from Marvel Stadium with both teams looking to bounce back quickly.

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Thursday 7:30pm, Marvel Stadium

St Kilda 1.80
Western Bulldogs 2.02
St Kilda - 3.5 / Western Bulldogs +3.5

Bet Right Markets

Changes:

📉 The Saints lose Max King to a knee injury and get back Zak Jones. Negative.

📉 The Bulldogs lose Ugle-Hagan (personal), Liberatore (let's call it Concussion) and Baker is dropped. They get back Rory Lobb, Riley Garcia and James Harmes comes back in. Interestingly, Caleb Daniel gets another week in the Twos. Negative.

Head to Head:

Other than a 3-point result at the Gabba during Covid, these two ALWAYS play at Marvel Stadium and the record is very close. Going back 5 years to the start of 2017 and the record is 4-4 and the winning margin is totally variable. Not much to glean from this!

Last week:

What to make of St Kilda's 1-point defeat by GWS? Giants led by 35 points early in Q4 before the Saints kicked the last 6 goals to go down by a solitary point.  The Giants copped a couple of injuries with Taylor and Coniglio not finishing the game, while Max King also went down late. St Kilda won the Inside 50s 52-48, Clearances 43-31, Contested Possession 132-121 and Tackles 67-59. The Giants won a telling stat - Efficiency Inside 50 - 56% to 44%. Given the Giants kicked straighter for goal, this gave them a buffer that they were able to maintain even though the Saints created more forward opportunities throughout the game.

The Bulldogs had a disappointing loss to the Bombers when they were strongly favoured. The Bombers held a slight advantage for most of the game but never more than 14 points until early in Q4 before kicking 5 goals to put the Bulldogs 43 points down. Disposals, Inside 50s, Clearances, Tackles and Contested Possessions were all fairly even. It was Centre Bounce Clearances where the Bulldogs got beat 16-10 and scores from centre bounces 19-6 which was the difference.

What we can expect this week:

The Saints don't seem like they can be a Top 4 team, although at 2-3 there's still time. They will need to win these 50/50 games in order to just keep their claim on the Top 8 - that's how it's going to be this season. Regardless, they'll be quite happy to be back in Melbourne where they play their best. They just need to create more opportunities given how well they are at winning the ball.

The Western Bulldogs need to start well, and maintain it. Bevo is not looking to rush back Daniel so he's sending a message to plenty - who will be next and how many, if they don't bounce back quickly.

The Saints giving up just a few points is hard to resist here and they can cover the 3.5 point line with Bet Right just here.

Saints -3.5

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