AFL: The Best and Worst Kicks for Goal in 2019

Last updated: Aug 7, 2019, 2:27AM | Published: Jul 25, 2019, 6:14AM

Using the Stats Insider 'expected score' formula, we’ve put together some data for the best and worst kicks for goal in the league.

AFL Shot Charting: Every player, every shot, since Round 1, 2018.

If you’re unfamiliar with how our expected score algorithm works, here’s a quick refresher:

The formula works by taking the league average accuracy from that field position and shot type (general play or set shot) and converting it into our 'Expected Score,' which is essentially the sum of the player's total points from their expected goals and behinds.

'Actual points' is, of course, the sum of the player's actual goals and behinds.

Using this method, we get a better understanding of whether the player is below par, above, or simply average at kicking for goal.

RELATED: AFL Shot Accuracy Explained

So, let's start with the positives.

The table below shows the top 20 players who have most exceeded their expected score.

First off, Gary Ablett Jn. at the ripe old age of 35, is the number #1 player in the league when it comes to capitalising on his shots at goal. He’s kicked an amazing 54.9 points more than would be expected by the 'average player' from the same positions on the ground.

Here is clear vindication for the people that suggested that Ablett could - and should - successfully move forward in the twilight of his career.

See where Gary Ablett has taken his shots on goal in 2019 from:

Also noteworthy in the table below is Essendon's recent match-winner, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti. Coming in at #2 with a total differential of 50.9pts above the expected score, it's not hard to see why rival clubs have started to show an interest in the out-of-contract Bomber forward.

One of the more incredible statistics in this positive-differential table is that top-of-the-ladder, Geelong, contain an astonishing four of the top 10, and five of the top 20 players exceeding their expected scores. Ablett, Tom Hawkins, Mitch Duncan, Gryan Miers and Tim Kelly have, in-total, amassed 789 actual points for the Cats in 2019, while their combined expected score is only 602, which means they have scored 187 points above expectation.

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The big question for Geelong now is, is this sustainable heading into AFL Finals?

AFL Top 20 Best Kicks for Goal in 2019

	Player	Team	Total Shots	Actual Points	SI Expected Points	Difference
1	Gary Ablett	GEE	49	187	132.1	54.9
2	Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti	ESS	36	163	112.1	50.9
3	Tom Hawkins	GEE	68	271	228.1	42.9
4	Jamie Cripps	WCE	39	153	114.6	38.4
5	Sam Reid	SYD	36	160	123.5	36.5
6	Mitch Duncan	GEE	22	102	66.1	35.9
7	Harry Himmelberg	GWS	43	202	166.4	35.6
8	Jack Darling	WCE	69	271	236.0	35.0
9	Taylor Walker	ADE	56	194	159.4	34.6
10	Gryan Miers	GEE	31	122	91.0	31.0
11	Michael Walters	FRE	54	203	174.0	29.0
12	Jeremy Cameron	GWS	108	361	334.5	26.5
13	Lance Franklin	SYD	46	154	129.2	24.8
14	Nick Larkey	NM	25	118	93.8	24.2
15	Cameron Zurhaar	NM	34	135	111.8	23.2
16	Tim Kelly	GEE	31	107	84.6	22.4
17	Jarrod Cameron	WCE	13	62	40.1	21.9
18	Jeremy Finlayson	GWS	50	199	177.9	21.1
19	Tim Membrey	STK	51	204	183.4	20.6
20	Peter Wright	GCS	37	127	107.6	19.4

Now, for the bad news.

The below table shows the worst shots for goal in 2019 - the players who have the biggest negative differential between their expected score, and their actual output.

It’ll come as no surprise to Bulldog fans to see club champ Marcus Bontempelli top the list of shame. Coming in at a massively negative 37.7pts, he owes the Dogs just a touch over 6 goals this season, based on what our expectation of what the 'average player' would kick from the same position as Bontempelli's shots for goal.

Incredibly, he’s still having a stand-out season and finds himself amongst the favourites for the 2019 Brownlow Medal.

To make that leap into the category of the absolute elite players, he’ll have to make more of his opportunities in front of the big sticks.

Here are the 20 players with the worst expected score differential so far in 2019.

AFL Top 20 Worst Kicks for Goal in 2019

	Player	Team	Total Shots	Actual Points	SI Expected Points	Difference
1	Marcus Bontempelli	WB	42	93	130.7	-37.7
2	Will Hayward	SYD	35	88	123.6	-35.6
3	Dean Kent	STK	35	84	114.0	-30.0
4	Jordan Clark	GEE	25	56	83.7	-27.7
5	Jaidyn Stephenson	COL	51	137	164.3	-27.3
6	Jack Sinclair	STK	20	32	59.1	-27.1
7	Liam Ryan	WCE	47	116	142.6	-26.6
8	Sam Powell-Pepper	PA	36	69	93.6	-24.6
9	Brayden Fiorini	GCS	16	18	42.3	-24.3
10	Will Setterfield	CAR	20	40	63.4	-23.4
11	Paul Puopolo	HAW	20	48	71.0	-23.0
12	Justin Westhoff	PA	29	72	94.2	-22.2
13	Aaron Naughton	WB	50	157	178.5	-21.5
14	Brandan Parfitt	GEE	13	22	42.9	-20.9
15	Jayden Laverde	ESS	22	59	77.8	-18.8
16	Max Gawn	MEL	12	24	42.2	-18.2
17	James Harmes	MEL	31	76	94.0	-18.0
18	Andrew Brayshaw	FRE	12	24	41.8	-17.8
19	Ben King	GCS	18	42	59.1	-17.1
20	Shaun McKernan	ESS	26	69	85.8	-16.8

Lastly, we present the best sharp-shooters and the biggest 'shank' culprits at each club.

Best Kicks for Goal at Each AFL Club

Team	Player	Actual Points	SI Expected Points	Difference
ADE	Taylor Walker	194	159.4	34.6
BL	Mitch Robinson	76	58.1	17.9
CAR	Mitch McGovern	109	91.2	17.8
COL	Josh Thomas	81	68.4	12.6
ESS	Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti	163	112.1	50.9
FRE	Michael Walters	203	174.0	29.0
GCS	Peter Wright	127	107.6	19.4
GEE	Gary Ablett	187	132.1	54.9
GWS	Harry Himmelberg	202	166.4	35.6
HAW	Ricky Henderson	65	48.9	16.1
MEL	Jay Lockhart	57	45.7	11.3
NM	Nick Larkey	118	93.8	24.2
PA	Kane Farrell	69	53.0	16.0
RIC	Brandon Ellis	51	35.8	15.2
STK	Tim Membrey	204	183.4	20.6
SYD	Sam Reid	160	123.5	36.5
WB	Sam Lloyd	195	182.0	13.0
WCE	Jamie Cripps	153	114.6	38.4

Worst Kicks for Goal at Each AFL Club

Team	Player	Actual Points	SI Expected Points	Difference
ADE	Chayce Jones	13	26.9	-13.9
BL	Jarrod Berry	37	51.2	-14.2
CAR	Will Setterfield	40	63.4	-23.4
COL	Jaidyn Stephenson	137	164.3	-27.3
ESS	Jayden Laverde	59	77.8	-18.8
FRE	Andrew Brayshaw	24	41.8	-17.8
GCS	Brayden Fiorini	18	42.3	-24.3
GEE	Jordan Clark	56	83.7	-27.7
GWS	Brent Daniels	59	72.4	-13.4
HAW	Paul Puopolo	48	71.0	-23.0
MEL	Max Gawn	24	42.2	-18.2
NM	Shaun Higgins	38	52.4	-14.4
PA	Justin Westhoff	72	94.2	-22.2
RIC	Noah Balta	39	52.5	-13.5
STK	Dean Kent	84	114.0	-30.0
SYD	Will Hayward	88	123.6	-35.6
WB	Marcus Bontempelli	93	130.7	-37.7
WCE	Liam Ryan	116	142.6	-26.6

Cameron's Giant Forward Presence

It’s Jeremy Cameron’s world and everyone else is just playing in it.

So far this season, the Giant full-forward has amassed a total of 108 shots on goal to lead all players in the competition.

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To put this into perspective, #2 on this list, North Melbourne's Ben Brown, has had 82 shots on goal, meaning Cameron has had at least 21.6% more scoring opportunities than anybody else in the league this season.

Looking at the y-axis on the graph below, we can see a dot for the total Stats Insider expected score differential of every player to have taken a shot in 2019, with ‘0’ being the average players' expected score.

On the x-axis we can see the player's total number of shots for goal.

So, it’s not just quantity for the GWS superstar, he’s still well above the league average for accuracy. Proof that Jeremy Cameron is the best forward in the game at the moment.

You can check out all our team- and player-level shot charting data for free right here at StatsInsider.com.au.

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Greg Butyn

Stats Insider data analyst. All-around nice guy. Lover of all dogs, including greyhounds and the Western Bulldogs. Usually can be found stalking the lobbies at Draftstars and Moneyball on any given day.