AFLW 2019: Conference A

The AFLW landscape has changed considerably in 2019 - two new teams, eleven new rules and a whole new conference system where the teams are split into two pools. 

One of the things that hasn't changed, is Stats Insider's commitment to great AFLW content and with the season opener at Kardinia Park just two sleeps away, it's time to unveil the first of our two-part look at the ten teams contesting the 2019 AFLW Premiership.

READ: How rule changes will affect the AFLW

Adelaide Crows

FIXTURE: Bulldogs (H), Blues (A), Cats (H), Dockers (H), Kangaroos (A), Giants (H), Demons (A)

Analysis: There is a very (very!) good chance the Crows could be 4-0 as they travel to play the new Kangaroos in R5, in a game that could decide who finishes top of their group.

OVERVIEW: We all know what Erin Phillips is capable of at her best (and she is back to her best), ditto: Ebony Marinoff and Chelsea Randall. But it's Adelaide's draft and recruiting that has got plenty of pundits expecting them to reclaim premiership glory in 2019. Let’s take a look at some new and emerging players who can take the Crows all the way this season.  

Jess Foley: With Rhi Metcalfe and Jess Allen both ruled out already and Jasmyn Hewett sidelined for a few weeks, Foley is literally the last woman standing in the ruck position for the Crows to start the season. Foley turns 36 this year and comes from a basketball background, but she absolutely dominated the SANFLW this season - averaging 25 hitouts and 18 disposals per game from nine outings, with a hit-out to advantage ratio of 25%! She may be the last one in line but she is exactly what the Crows need. She will make their midfielders even better.

Nikki Gore: Pick #8 in the 2018 AFLW Draft, Gore dominated the National Championships averaging 20 disposals and more than seven tackles per game from five appearances. Her VFLW form for the NT Thunder was less impressive (averaging seven disposals and three tackles over two games) but it was a much smaller sample size with less opportunity. Gore provides plenty of flexibility to the Crows list and is one of those players who will allow Phillips to spend more time forward.

Marijana Rajcic: Playing five games for the Crows last season after crossing from soccer, Rajcic caught the eye with her energy both on and off the ball. She was never far away from it, and you just sensed she was capable of smashing her 9 disposal average, so when she ran out for her lone game for Norwood this SANFLW season, collecting 22 disposals with seven tackles it was not a huge surprise. Likely to play off a half-back flank this season, but has the skillset and size to roll through the midfield. Expect a big second season.

Chloe Scheer: You may have heard the name pop up a bit after her impressive 2-goal haul in the AFLW trial match against Fremantle, and you may know that she was a gun junior who ruptured her ACL midway through 2017. What you may not know is just how good she was, and how good a pickup she could be this season for the Crows.  Over two games at the 2017 U18 Championships, Scheer averaged 25 disposals, five marks and 3.5 tackles! Like Gore (and Renee Forth and Sophie Li for that matter), Scheer is adding incredible depth to the Crows midfield brigade. The risk, of course, is we have seen with players like Forth - and Jordan Zanchetta from the Lions - that it can take a full season to return to full form after an ACL, but I expect they will take a cautious approach with Scheer, and play her majority forward as a pressure player, with short stints through the midfield.

VERDICT: Forget the Kangaroos or the Dogs, the Crows are the team to beat in 2019. Erin Phillips was on one leg last season (almost literally), but this year the star is fit and ready to fire once again. After just one season, people have forgotten how good she was and how dominant she was over the competition in 2017.

The scary thing is: the Crows list has gotten much, much better in a very short space of time. They have recruited very well through the midfield (we didn’t even touch on Forth or Li) which will allow Phillips to play a Dangerfield-esque 40-60% mid-fwd split. Expect they finish top in their conference and go on to win their second flag in three years. 

2019 Premiers. 

Western Bulldogs

FIXTURE: Crows (A), Cats (H), Kangaroos (A), Lions (H), Dockers (A), Demons (H), Blues (H)

Analysis: The reigning champions have drawn the toughest road to the premiership this season, not playing the Magpies at all, and getting the Blues last when it could already be all over.

OVERVIEW: Very keen to see how they go first up, and in particular, how they fill the sizeable holes left by the loss of Kearney, Bruton and Lochland. The Dogs were solid down back and serviceable in the ruck in 2018, but it was their elite on-ball posse that kept them surging forward. How their second-tier midfielders step up will ultimately define their season.

Mon Conti: Conti is an absolute gun. Not many looked a class above in their rookie season, but Conti (and Molloy) both well and truly ticked that box. Ready to step into a larger midfield role this season but the loss of Lochland does leave the Dogs requiring a small leading / pressure forward. I expect coach Groves will be very reluctant to move Conti too far away from the goals this season, but if she does get a permanent move into the midfield expect to see her rack up the stats and make every one of them count. Irish import Aisling McCarthy could hold the key to where Conti plays. Will make an impact it's just a case of where they need her more.

Eleanor Brown: By the stats from her U18 Championships and her VFLW season, Brown has been selected by the Dogs as a ready-made Kearney clone. Averaged 20 disposals, 10 marks and just under four tackles per game over five VFLW matches, which is elite. She played on a wing in the trial hitout against Collingwood, with Lamb and Blackburn getting the bulk of the on-ball minutes. I think they see Brown as a real hard-running link player, but she can be that and much more if she gets her chance at centre bounces. Lock her in for a Round 1 appearance.

Angela Gogos: Gogos was getting a shutdown role towards the end of last season, but that was with Kearney able to rack up possessions at will. This season Gogos will have to be a more complete midfielder, while still shutting down an opponent. Expect they start her, Lamb and Blackburn at the first bounce and if she can take a step up this year the Dogs may not miss Kearney all that much.

Katie Bartlett: With no Huntington (injured) and O’Connor (Geelong) up front, the Dogs are lacking height to help out star forward, Katie Brennan. Taken at #26 in the 2019 draft, Bartlett was dominant at U18 Championships. Can't understand why the Dockers let her slip through their fingers but Bartlett looks like the perfect fit for the Dogs, and her elite forward pressure will prove a real weapon if the ball does get spilt in the marking contest.

VERDICT: Big question marks on the Dogs ruck and midfield depth. Lochland’s injury results in a critical mass of talent missing from the list and while they will still be competitive, they have very little backup should any of their frontline stars go down. If Bartlett and McCarthy can emerge as solid forwards and Huntington returns well, then maybe, but we saw what happened to the Crows when Phillips was absent to start 2018, and the Dogs have lost Kearny, Bruton, Huntington, Lochland and O’Connor at a time when other sides are improving their lists. Need everything to go right to make the prelim. 

Fourth in Conference A.

North Melbourne Kangaroos

FIXTURE: Blues (H), Giants (A), Dogs (A), Demons (A), Crows (H), Magpies (A), Dockers (A)

Analysis: Probably the easiest draw of the Conference with games against the Pies and Dockers to finish the season, with the opener against the Blues. Tough patch in the middle but the Roos have recruited well enough to be able to stay with any opponent.

OVERVIEW: As if signing the reigning MVP wasn’t enough, the Kangas pounced on Kearney’s protégé at the Dogs, Jenna Bruton, took two of the AFLW elite rucks in Emma King and Tahlia Randall and absolutely pillaged the Pies and Lions, luring Stanton, Hope, Duffin and Ashmore down to the kennel. Throw in Jasmine Garner and Danielle Hardiman and North Melbourne have recruited an amazingly solid spine. The big question mark is just how good are the 12-18^th players on the field? We shall soon find out.

Emma Kearney: Averaged 19 disposals, three marks and five tackles over 8 games in 2018. Best and Fairest in a premiership year – there is not much not to love about Kearney and she will be able to repeat it all at the Kangaroos in terms of game time and on-ball role. This time she will be roving two dominant tap rucks, and won’t have Blackburn taking inside possessions off her stat line. Scary stuff.

Jenna Bruton: With all the high profile recruits, Bruton has gone a little under the radar this pre-season, but she could be the best buy of them all. Will start on-ball and wont have to contend with the competitions deepest midfield rotation this season, so expect a big uptick in the 12 disposal, four tackle average she produced last season. Very savvy pickup.

Allison Drennan: As if Kearney and Bruton weren’t enough, enter Drennan to the midfield fold. In 14 matches with the Southern Saints (VFLW) this season, Drennan averaged 22 disposals and a tick under eight tackles per game. Add Stanton and North Melbourne can well and truly challenge the Crows for boasting the league’s best midfield, which - as we have seen these last two years - is where this game is won and lost.  

Rucks: if the Kangas can manage a way to have both Tahlia Randall and Emma King on the field at the same time, look out AFLW! These two were dominant last season for the Lions and Pies respectively, and they form the best one-two punch in the league in 2019. The Roos do lack some height in their forward line, so if Randall can pinch-hit up front, the Kangas should dominate forward stoppages with the luxury of being able to set King up behind the ball.

VERDICT: The star power is there, the fixture is there, even the bookmakers have jumped on the Kangaroos. If players like Ashmore and Hope can fire forward of centre, North Melbourne will be near impossible to beat - but there still remains that question mark of how does a new team come together in such a short space of time? Expect a second place finish in Conference A and bow out to the Crows in a ripping Prelim. 

Second in Conference A 

Fremantle Dockers

FIXTURE: Demons (A), Lions (H), Magpies (H), Crows (A), Dogs (H), Cats (A), Kangaroos (H)

Analysis: It’s looking like a tough season for the Dockers who appear solid enough in the midfield, but again lacking scoring power and/or the ability to stem the flow of points conceded. Will need to win that Round 1 game in Melbourne to figure in Finals.

OVERVIEW: Not only did the Dockers struggle to kick a winning score, they struggled to kick full stop last season, finishing last in disposal efficiency and contested marking. Kara Donellan, Ebony Antonio and Dana Hooker can only do so much. But where does the help come from?

Kellie Gibson: A marquee signing for the Crows in 2017, Gibson went back to Perth last year, but a hip-flexor injury kept her out of all but the final game. Gibson is one of those pieces for Fremantle that if they fit right the impact could be massive. Expect she plays a predominantly high half-forward role this season. The Dockers lack forwards in general, so Gibson’s speed bursting through stoppages, and her leading and link play could be a huge addition this season.

Kiara Bowers: A five-time WAFLW Best and Fairest winner, Fremantle’s 2017 marquee signing is yet to play an AFLW game in two seasons. Won the Dockers 2km time trial in mid-November and has made it through the trials well - will play Round 1 but it has been tough for players coming back from an ACL to dominate straight away. Gibson and Bowers are the unknowns for Freo this season. Expect to see them both on a forward flank where they can use their speed and creativity whilst avoiding too much midfield contact as they find their feet at the elite level. Bowers will be itching to get back on-ball, though, and if she can return to her pre-ACL form then look out.

Phillipa Seth: Mature-ager, drafted from East Fremantle where she has played over 100 WAFLW games including a runner-up placing in their 2018 Best and Fairest. Won the Player of the Finals in a premiership season last year, and looks ready-made to step up to AFLW level, likely on a half-back flank. Has played midfield tagging roles for East though, which gives the Dockers great flexibility this season. 

Parris Laurie: Relatively new to football - growing up in Denmark - Laurie was taken at #49 in the 2019 AFLW Draft and is a very interesting player for Fremantle this season – a very mobile ruck, great runner - think Marc Blicavs for the Geelong men's team. Was leading the Best and Fairest for Claremont until she went on holidays (as you do). Played really well in the trial match and would be expecting to start Round 1. She perfectly fits the Dockers game plan of run, run, run - and then, finally - run some more. Fremantle was average (Janz) in the hitout department last season so having Laurie in there doesn’t take anything away, but instead adds a huge strength on their spread from the contest.

VERDICT: Like last season, as in 2017, Fremantle could be anything. Until we see it though, we can’t help but slide them down the list. If they win those first few and their returning stars start to click they can go deep in this competition, but, on the back of their lack of forward power, a last place in this group beckons. If they can arrest this weakness and impact the scoreboard, they will be right there with most sides. 

Fifth in Conference A

Melbourne Demons

FIXTURE: Dockers (H), Magpies (A), Lions (H), Kangaroos (H), Giants (A), Dogs (A), Crows (A)

Analysis: One of the toughest draws of the competition, Melbourne’s first two games are very winnable but everything else looks tough.

OVERVIEW: How do you fill the gap left by Daisy Pearce? Richelle Cranston and Mel Hickey are both no longer there as well. No Erin Hoare. Four big outs. How do they cover?

Elise O’Dea: O’Dea was a gun while Pearce was playing, but this season she will challenge for the AFLW Best and Fairest. Averaged over 17 disposals, four marks and five tackles over seven games last season. Pearce allowed her to play a little more outside, but she will have to go and hunt it this season. Expect the tackle count to give double digits a great nudge whilst her disposals - if she is not tagged - will clear 20 per game. If she has her best season the Dees can be right up there again in 2019.

Katie Hore: Averaged 11 disposals, three marks and three tackles last season which is elite for her half-forward position, but in 2019 Hore will need to lift even more. If she goes to the next level - and she can - she can do much to alleviate the absence of Pearce. Hope we see Hore get more midfield minutes this season: her speed and attack on the footy is excellent and her foot skills are elite. The Demons love the ball in her hands either kicking for goal or distributing forward of center.

Tyla Hanks: Taken with Melbourne's first pick in the 2019 AFLW Draft (#6), Hanks is as clean as they come with ball in hand. Her disposal numbers at the U18 Championships weren’t as spectacular as some of the other girls (averaging just under 13 over four games), but her five score involvements per game stood out, and would have been why the Dees picked her up. Some bone bruising may keep her out of the first round or two but when she plays, expect her to play as a high half-forward, distributing the ball into the F50. Her combination with Hore and Cunningham will be key to the Demons' chances this season.

Casey Sherriff: Had an amazing season for Casey in the VFLW this season, averaging 14 disposals, four marks and four tackles per game as an intercept defender. Whether she allows Jakobsson to be able to go forward, or whether Sheriff joins Meg Downie and Jakobsson to form what would be a league-leading half-back line, either way, she makes the Demons much better in 2019.

VERDICT: With no Pearce, Cranston and Hickey, the Dees look under strength and down on experience, but it could be the loss of Erin Hoare that really bites them this season. Hoare didn’t have a huge season in 2018 but she rarely lost the ruck battle which allowed the Demon on-ballers to go to work. Lauren Pearce and Edan Zanker will both have to have huge seasons in the ruck. Melbourne just misses the Prelim. 

Third in Conference A 

READ: AFLW 2019 Conference B

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