AFLW 2019: Round 1 Preview
Last updated: Feb 2, 2019, 12:41AM | Published: Feb 1, 2019, 7:02AM
Footy is finally back and I for one could not be more excited about the first round of a new AFLW season.
With two new teams (and four more next year!), a ton of player movement over the off-season and a number of talented rookies on the books, it's going to be hard work but we're still having a crack at predicting the early rounds of AFLW.
Cats v Magpies
Where, When and Weather: 6:45pm (EDT) @ Kardinia Park, Geelong.
Nothing but sunshine on the radar, zero chance of rain spoiling a great season opener!
Comment: A very even contest in front of a huge 30,000+ crowd under lights in a proper footy stadium – THIS is how each and every AFLW season should begin.
The Cats would have gone in favorites had Erin Hoare (foot), Mel Hickey (knee) and Richelle Cranston (suspended) all been available but with that trio all sidelined the Magpies have been backed into $1.65 favorites.
Personally I think that is a little bit short for a team that has won 6 games in 2 seasons, a team that has lost Jess Duffin, Jas Garner, Amelia Barden, Mo Hope, Emma King and is without Chloe Molloy all season. Huge holes all over the place.
Vast majority of the named Cats have been playing as a cohesive unit in the VFL for two seasons now, with just a few (very) high draft picks added to that mix.
Who Wins and Why: This will be a really even game and as with most AFLW matches, the winner will be determined by accuracy in front of goal. It’s a cliché but in these early season games when defense is ascendant and pressure is high, there aren’t many shots on goal so making the ones you get count is the key to victory. Collingwood won't get a better chance to win all season.
Magpies by a kick.
Betting Value: Just one suggested bet in the season opener with the model identifying a 6% edge for the Magpies at the -4.5pt Line.
View Match Page Data: Cats v Magpies
Crows v Bulldogs
When, Where and Weather: 8:40pm (EDT) @ Norwood Oval, Adelaide.
Fine and sunny, great night for footy in Adelaide.
Comment: The Crows are deserved favourites at home, against a vastly depleted Bulldogs midfield missing reigning Best and Fairest winning Emma Kearney, as well as Brook Lochland and Jenna Bruton.
The Dogs are also without Aasta O’Connor which makes their ruck department a little light on, especially up against the height and physicality of SANFL star, Jess Foley.
In contrast the Crows have added depth to their midfield while getting superstar and inaugural Best and Fairest, Erin Phillips, back to full strength.
Who Wins and Why: This game will be really hotly contested, but I can see the Crows just winning the arm wrestle with a little bit more class and consistency across the field. I’m a huge wrap for Jess Foley, I think she will make that whole midfield even more dangerous.
Crows by 16.
Betting Value: Two huge edges from the model for the visitors here, the Dogs H2H and with the +2.5pt Line. I will admit to personally being dubious about both these bets. The Dogs can win this game, but I am just so wary of a fully fighting fit Erin Phillips (and a lack of Emma Kearney) that I might just let this one go through to the keeper.
View Match Page Data: Crows v Bulldogs
Kangaroos v Blues
When, Where and Weather: 1:05pm (EDT) @ North Hobart Oval, Hobart.
No rain forecast at all for Hobart on Sunday but always pays to check closer to bounce.
Comment: The Kangaroos have assembled a very good side, but $1.44 favouritism is a little short for my liking against a Blues side chomping at the bit to make amends for a horror 2018.
Two big question marks:
1) How will North Melbourne gel as a team, and
2) What kind of Bri Davey will turn up?
If the answers are ‘well,' and 'poorly’ then the Kangaroos will smash this Blues side. But if Davey can get to close to the player she was before her injury, and the Roos lack cohesion then Carlton can win this game.
Who Wins and Why: Carlton have an improved list, new coach and the hunger will be there, but until we know they have learnt to move the ball better I just can’t get on board the Blues Train. North Melbourne win this game on the back of pure class. Kearney, Randall, Stanton, Bruton, Garner, Hope – all match winners, and they will not want to drop Round 1 to last year’s wooden spooners.
North Melbourne by 10.
Betting Value: The model has spotted a 6% edge for the Kangaroos at the -9.5pt Line.
View Match Page Data: Kangaroos v Blues
Demons v Dockers
When, Where and Weather: 3:05pm (EDT) @ Casey Fields, Melbourne.
The warm weather keeps coming, fine and sunny in Melbourne on Sunday. Going to be an absolute scorcher though, so expect play to open up towards the end of quarters and throughout the second half as the tiredness sets in.
Comment: This is a really close game for mine. The heat really brings the Dockers into this match - with their outside speed and run-at-all-costs style of play - whilst the Demons are without Mel Hickey, Daisy Pearce, Erin Hoare, Rochelle Cranston and Anna Teague.
The Dockers will get marquee signings Kiara Bowers and Kelly Gibson on the field for the first time, whilst new (and very mobile) ruck, Paris Laurie, will cause all kinds of havoc in these hot conditions.
Who Wins and Why: Fremantle in an upset, due to the scorching conditions being conducive to their game style. The Melbourne still have plenty of weapons though, and if they kick straight like they did last season over in Perth, they Dockers will be in trouble, but I’m sticking with the visitors to make a statement to start 2019.
Dockers by 7.
Betting Value: The model also thinks the Dockers are being underrated, identifying a 7% edge for them in the H2H market. The Melbourne-centric AFLW markets have jumped on the Demons here but I really like the value play from the model here.
View Match Page Data: Demons v Dockers
Lions v Giants
When, Where and Weather: 5:05pm (EDT), Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex.
Decent chance of showers in the sunshine state, so watch the radar because any rain will significantly change the way this game is played.
Comment: The way the conferences are set up this game could very well determine who finishes top of Pool B. Brisbane are without Stanton and Randall, and the Giants have significantly improved on their list from last season.
GWS defeated the Lions fairly comfortably in a trial match two weeks ago, and seem to be really focused on playing finals footy this season. This game will be very, very close and in such games I’d normally side with the home team, but I'm just really liking the look of the Giants this year.
Who Wins and Why: Another game likely to come down to accuracy in front of goals.
Giants by 5 in a nail-biter.
Betting Value: Two big green smiley suggested bets to finish AFLW Round 1, with the model identifying solid value on the Giants both at the Line and H2H. I like both bets.
View Match Page Data: Lions v Giants
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