AFLW 2019: Round 2 Preview
Last updated: Feb 8, 2019, 6:26AM | Published: Feb 7, 2019, 9:30PM
Three absolute nail-biters, a sprinkle of precipitation and two shellackings - Round 2 of the AFLW looks to have something for everyone (unless you barrack for Collingwood or Carlton!)
These match previews are written by a human, with feelings (we love him), opinions (pretty good ones at that), and a passion for AFLW (as all good footy fans should!). For all official Stats Insider model projections, check out the FREE Round 2 match pages.
GWS Giants v North Melbourne
When, Where and Weather: 7:15pm (AEDT) @ Drummoyne Oval.
Chance of a little rain so check radar closer to opening bounce because the game will change dramatically if any rain falls.
Comment
This will be a proper scrap. Both sides have deep, fierce-tackling midfields who will not want the other side to get out into space with clean possession, so expect a really hard, contested game inside. I can see this game being pretty low scoring.
The Kangaroos got a soft game first up against the Blues - but looked a million dollars smashing them - while the Giants failed to capitalise on their dominant share of possession and momentum against AFLW powerhouse Brisbane Lions. Really tough one to pick.
Who Wins and Why
The Kangaroos have talent across every line, but if they are vulnerable it is in their defence. If the Giants midfield can win the contested battle they could expose North Melbourne down back - but that is a BIG IF. Should not be more than a kick in this come final siren, slightly leaning on the Giants to sneak away with the win at home.
BETTING VALUE: The Stats Insider model has two suggested bets here at time of writing, identifying solid edges for the Giants both H2H and the Line.
VIEW MATCH PAGE: Giants v Kangaroos
Collingwood FC v Melbourne FC
When, Where and Weather: Saturday 4:45pm (AEDT) @ Victoria Park.
Not much rain forecast but again any rain will impact this match. Watch radar closely.
Comment
If the rain stays away the Demons will absolutely demolish Collingwood. There is no getting around how bad the Pies were in Round 1 at Geelong, given they were up against a team of debutantes and missing four gun players.
Melbourne have the defence in place to contain any Magpie surges and they absolutely have the forward power to kick a winning score. Lauren Pearce will dominate the ruck, giving her on-ballers first use, which could spell real trouble for the Magpies midfielders, who will all be doing rain dances pre-game.
Who Wins and Why?
Melbourne by a large margin if it’s dry. Melbourne by less if the rains arrive. Collingwood lack some of everything everywhere, and although young forward, Katie Lynch, should help in terms of scoreboard impact, her midfielders still have to get the ball to her.
BETTING VALUE: One big edge in this game with the model assessing that the market is well overweight on the Magpies, liking (a lot) the Demons to cover the +7.5pt spread.
VIEW MATCH PAGE: Magpies v Demons
Western Bulldogs v Geelong FC
When, Where and Weather: Saturday 7:15pm (AEDT) @ Whitten Oval.
Next to no chance of rain ruining what should be an exciting, fast-paced game of footy.
Comment
This is by no stretch the cake-walk for the Dogs that bookmaker markets would have you believe. The Cats get Erin Hoare back, which is big, big news. She will absolutely dominate the ruck, and also free Aasta O’Connor to move forward and provide a really solid marking target. Star AFLW Draft #1 selection, Nina Morrison is a big loss after a suffering an ACL at training.
Phoebe McWilliams will debut for the Cats, adding scoring power to an increasingly capable forward line. I also really rate Geelong’s defence particularly, Meg McDonald.
For the Bulldogs, Mon Conti has been named on-ball, which if it eventuates, is a great move. Her speed and class in and around the stoppages will be difficult to contain. Ellie Blackburn will rack them up, but I’m just not sure how damaging she can be with ball in hand. Tight contest this one.
Who Wins and Why: Call me crazy but I think the Cats are capable of an upset here. I can see them smashing the Dogs in the ruck, and if young gun Olivia Purcell can take advantage of that to surge the ball forward, they have the scoring power. Cats by a kick.
BETTING VALUE: Two suggested bets from the model for the Cats - both H2H and at the Line - as markets continue to overrate the Bulldogs despite their lost midfield power (and the fact the Crows should have flogged them last weekend).
VIEW MATCH PAGE: Bulldogs v Cats
Carlton FC v Adelaide Crows
When, Where and Weather: Sunday 4:05pm (AEDT) @ Ikon Park.
Fine and sunny according to the bureau.
Comment
This game could be one for the AFLW record books. Just don’t see a way that Carlton don’t get absolutely flogged in this one. The Blues were horrific first up, while the Crows could have put 50+ on the Bulldogs and will be absolutely fuming they didn’t kick straight.
Expect an angry, determined, clinical Crows outfit to have upwards of 15 registered scores. If that is 1.14 then the Blues will obviously be in the game - like the Dogs were last week - but if the Crows kick true that dominance could translate into a 10.5 score.
Carlton have recalled Georgia Gee which is a good pick - they may as well get as many games as possible into their young, high draft picks. They have also named rugby convert, Brooke Walker, on an extended bench - not a great sign that such inexperience is pushing for selection in just Round 2.
Who Wins and Why?
Crows. By 40+. Their midfield is too deep and Erin Phillips is too good up forward. It's just that simple. Hopefully we'll see Renee Forth get extended on-ball run to get her confidence back up. If they can get her back to her pre-ACL best they will be nearly unbeatable.
BETTING VALUE: The model loves Adelaide to cover the -7.5pt Line offered. Not much love anywhere for the Blues, who just lack the foot skills particularly from midfield.
VIEW MATCH PAGE: Blues v Crows
Fremantle Dockers v Brisbane Lions
When, Where and Weather: Sunday 6:05pm (AEDT) @ Fremantle Oval.
Perfect hot sunny day in the glorious west. Brilliant fast footy conditions.
Comment
Game of the round. Two skillful teams, both aggressive at the contest, and both like to run all day. Expecting a really fast, open game after it clears the contest, and in that situation, Fremantle has a great shot at starting the season 2-0.
They do have to get past the best defense in the competition, though. The 'Wall of Lutkins' is nigh on impossible to breach for most sides, but with Ebony Antonio moving forward, her leg speed will be a match for the Lions’ All-Australian CHB. If the Dockers can nullify Luktins’ interception game, Fremantle can win. That simple.
Who Wins and Why?
Fremantle have weapons this season that they have never had. Bolstered midfield class, mobile rucks and effective, impactful forwards. The Demons didn’t do a lot wrong last week and still lost, and at home, Freo could spring an upset here. It will be close, but the Dockers by 4pts.
BETTING VALUE: The model LOVES Brisbane. We were bound to disagree at some point this round and it seems the model is very (very) bullish about the Lions, both H2H and at the Line, where it has identified a massive 15% edge.
VIEW MATCH PAGE: Dockers v Lions
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