AFLW 2019: Round 3 Preview
Last updated: Feb 15, 2019, 3:21AM | Published: Feb 14, 2019, 8:35PM
Three possible blowouts, a revenge game and a nail-biter in Brisbane to finish what looks a ripping Round 3 of the AFLW.
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
When, Where and Weather: 7:15pm (AEDT) @ University of Tasmania Stadium.
Radar and forecast look good. Clear skies and not much wind. Perfect for footy.
Match Comment
Teams, ground and weather all conducive to a great game of footy here. Expect Kearney and Bruton to have plenty of company most of, if not all night, but despite what will be the Bulldogs best efforts, I can’t see them staying with the Kangaroos here.
Who Wins and Why?
North Melbourne to go 3/3 on the back of a dominant forward line and ruck department (and deeper midfield, and defence… they are just better).
Betting Value: The Stats Insider model thinks that the markets are a little too bullish on the Kangaroos, identifying a few minor edges for the Dogs at the Line and H2H.
Go to Match Page: Kangaroos v Bulldogs
When, Where and Weather: Saturday 4:45pm @ Blacktown International Sportspark.
Will be breezy by bounce which will impact play slightly.
Match Comment
If the Giants don’t win this game their season is pretty much over. They have made mass changes which highlights how much they need this game, and how sub-par the first two weeks were from their internal standards.
Millane and Edwards tag Gum and Eva? Carlton have cut Audley which makes room for Davey onball. If she plays well Carlton can stay with the Giants in the middle, and their forward line can be dangerous if the supply is there, but that’s a big if. Remember this Giants team kicked 2.11 against the Kangaroos.
If four of those 11 behinds go through the big sticks they beat North.
Who Wins and Why?
Do or die for the Giants here, and they really are a class above in terms of list strength. The Blues would have to play out of their collective skins, but it is always possible which speaks to the general lack of confidence about how good GWS are this season. Expect the Giants to win by 3-4 goals and show the competition they are contenders in 2019.
Betting Value: Nothing at this early stage from the model in this game. Personally, I love the -5.5 for the Giants, my value play of the weekend.
Go to Match Page: Giants v Blues
Fremantle Dockers v Collingwood FC
When, Where and Weather: 7:15pm @ Fremantle Oval.
No rain but there is wind expected.
Match Comment
Not much more I can heap on the Magpies. Fremantle used the space on the big ground really well last week and that was against a better team, in the Lions. Hate to think what they could do to Collingwood.
The Dockers are a better team on every line and should win fairly easily as such.
Who Wins and Why?
Fremantle by 4-5 goals in a dominant, percentage-boosting win.
Betting Value: Markets have given the Magpies a huge +15.5pt start here (biggest of the season so far), and the model does see some value in that line. Monitor closer to bounce to see if it shifts one way or another.
Go to Match Page: Dockers v Magpies
When, Where and Weather:
2:35pm @ Norwood Oval.
The fine and sunny weather continues into Sunday. Will be a cracking day for footy.
Match Comment
Cats get Cranston and Hickey back but lose O’Connor, whilst the Crows see Chelsea Randall return which is a massive plus. Can’t see who the Cats have to tag Marinoff and/or Phillips, but have to assume they will try maybe Garing and Cranston. It’s a big factor in the game because if the Crows stars aren’t curtailed they will crush the Cats through the middle.
Who Wins and Why?
Adelaide by 2-3 goals. The Crows are yet to fully click into gear so if they do, that margin could be 20-30+ points. Just too much class. Randall, Marinoff and Phillips to dominate.
Betting Value: Again everyone is loving the Crows so there is value about for the underdog Cats according to the model, both at the Line and H2H.
Go to Match Page: Crows v Cats
When, Where and Weather:
4:35pm @ Hickey Park.
Always a chance a thunderstorm rolls in late, so watch the radar, but looks clear and sunny at this stage.
Match Comment
Both these teams are down on their 2018 form, and both have lost to the Dockers so this will be a great gauge to see where they are at. The Lions have a few more out and out superstars available who can influence and turn games, whereas the Demons are just lacking that elite capability.
Melbourne will be extremely dominant in the ruck, and if they can turn that tap dominance into clearances, we saw last week that when under pressure that Lions defence can and does crack.
Keen to see which Eden Zanker we get this weekend.
Who Wins and Why?
Lions by a kick. Koenen returns which will have a really positive flow-on effect. Brisbane on the back of Lutkins, who just had too much to do last week and too much ground to cover.
Betting Value: No value at this early stage from the model, monitor the match page because markets can fluctuate late which brings value into play.
Go to Match Page: Lions v Demons
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READ: What is the Edge?
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