The Club 20 regulars are walking tall this week coming off a massive 400% POT weekend thanks to some rain and Robby Shelton’s T3 at the 3M Open. 

The big collects also mark our third week straight in the winners circle, bringing our post-covid balance sheets back to a place we’re more used to seeing here at the front bar. 

Since the restart on May 27 (63 days ago) we’ve had 143 bets which, working off our $5 stakes, puts our outlay at $715. 

Over that same time our collects have amounted to $1,021.75 (204.35 units). 

It was a dodgy start to the reopening, but the faithful have been rewarded for staying the course through rough beats and grossly out-of-date beer.

Since the taps iced back up again we’ve cleared over $300 in profit ($306.75) at a very Club 20-like 42.9% POT (Profit on Turnover). 

Now of course none of us here know what any of this means but gee wiz it sounds impressive. 

Right, on to the bets. Of which there are a lot this week.

AFL – DEMONS V POWER

There is more value in the LNP’s climate policy than there is in tonight’s game at the Gabba and with 20 days straight of AFL, we’re inclined to wait. 

Injuries and travel pressures will dictate there are going to be amazing spots to pounce on in coming days and weeks, but since we are all degenerates and on a bit of a heater, we will throw up one guy who we think is ready for a bag at good odds. 

Robbie Gray 2/3/4/5+ Goals

At 4’s, 14’s, 51’s and 81-1 for 5 goals, Gray looks best placed to take advantage of the Dixon/May matchup which we expect will be largely halved by the former Suns teammates. 

NRL – DRAGONS V RABBITOHS

Don’t ask us why, but several of us arrived this morning thinking ‘Today is a Tariq Sims day’. 

He has a 40+ tackle count in him and can score a try, so we’ve covered both bases. 

Tariq Sims Try @ 4.75, 2 Tries @ 34.00, Most Tackles @ 8.00

PGA TOUR – FEDEX ST JUDES

The good news is all of our golfers will make it through to Saturday this week and we’ve gone looking for value down the board of a very strong field because the prices up top are just laughable.

Don’t want anything to do with Brooks even at 30’s or whatever price you find him at. In the last two weeks he has been horrid and yes he hit it good Friday at the 3M, but he missed that cut in a woefully weak field and couldn’t sink a 3ft putt. If we’re taking a guy cold, we need much more juice than that, especially ina  no-cut event where a few errant shots each round will sink you. 

Instead our plan this week is to take 5 guys outright, top 5, top 10 and top 20 so that even if one or two guys take us deep but fall short, we are still having a good week. 

Gary Woodland @ 41/9/4.50/2.25

He has had 10 days at home with the twins and will likely have been first one to rock up at TPC Southwind (probably before the course opened on Tuesday). 

Recent form encouraging, course form here is not great but that was in the before times, in the age of Gary-cant-putt. New Gary can roll them with the best and if his putter and irons hold and his off-the-tee game catches, watch out.  

Matthew Wolff @ 67/13/6/3.25

We like what we’ve seen from the Wolff man last few weeks with a T2, T22 and T12 in three of his last four starts. Solid T24 here last year and after a week where he had cameras and microphones coming out of his ass defending at 3M, one of the best young players in the world gets a nice pressure-free no-cut event at a course that sets up perfectly for him. 

Smashes it, been putting amazing, even from the rough on those tough holes like 12 and 18, Wolff’s power means the water is much less a concern.

Paul Casey @ 81/13/6/3

Casey had a career-worst putting performance last week at the 3M Open, losing over 6 strokes putting to the field in just two rounds. He was first up off a break and we’re forgiving that one. Middling efforts here last few years (T31, T27) but this price is too good for a player who is ranked top 10 in this field for strokes gained off the tee (9th) and on approach (4th). He putts even neutral and he contends. If he turns the flat stick around which is entirely possible, then his price is amazing. 

Christiaan Bezeidenhout @ 126/21/9/4

Lost 5 strokes off the tee at the Memorial and still finished T22. 5! Loves Bermuda and has competed well in WGC field this year (T17 HSBC ’19 and T27 in Mexico earlier this year). 

He is in the top 20 in this field in strokes gained on approach and putting and whilst he is near dead-last off the tee, he won’t need to chase a score in this no-cut format so he can be more strategic off the tee and pick his holes. Price play though, the number is just too big. 

Shane Lowry @ 151/21/9/4

Speaking of big numbers, the disrespect for Sir Shane in the markets is unbelievable, especially considering his form slump has been due to an ice-cold putter. 

At this price, in this field with no cut, the reigning Open champion gladly goes in.

PGA TOUR – BARACCUDA CHAMPIONSHIP

Given everyone who is everyone is at TPC Southwind for the WGC, the field assembled at Tahoe Mountain Club in California for the Barracuda is quite good. 

Huge elevation at this course so we are looking for iron players and putters, taking two guys only, with the top 5 EW. 

Bud Cauley @ 41/9

Ranked 13th in the field on approach, 6th around the greens and 35th in putting, Cauley is the perfect candidate for this course that will demand accurate iron play to a very close proximity. Odds have already come in from 50’s earlier in the week, defiitely down in class, can compete at a great price. 

Robby Shelton @ 70/15

Have to go back to Robby after he landed some great bets for us last week. That effort will have given him plenty of confidence that he can compete, post game interview showed he is feeling really confident about where his game is at. Gained almost 6 shots on approach last week, another 5 OTT. Hoping he rides that form to another big finish here.

EURO TOUR – HERO OPEN

Few darts here for the Euro tournament given we get to watch a fair bit of it here in aus, always fun to have a few guys to watch from the front bar.

Ryan Fox and Callum Hill were both in contention at the British Masters last week, with Fox going north on the leaderboard shooting -3 on Sunday in horribly windy conditions. Hill slid down and out of it but he started Sunday inside the top 10.

This is not a particularly strong field, these guys are both hitting it well and at very fair prices.

NBA – FRIDAY JULY 31

We have not had a chance to study the NBA form yet, but keep an eye out for some prop bets on our twitter page because the NBA will be an even bigger shit show than the AFL will be in the next 20 days in terms of injuries and sporadic player minutes/opportunities.

 Come join the Twitter party @Club20 for our most up-to-date bets.