To win a Premiership a team must be the best at covering its weakest spots, so as to not be exposed to vulnerabilities when the going gets tough.

A lot has transpired since we last took a look at each contender’s biggest strength, namely the historic events transpiring between Melbourne and Fremantle, however the list of likely premiers come season’s end remains the same.

In the spirit of celebrating the final week of AFLW’s home-and-away season let’s check out each contender’s achilles' heel, analysing where rivals can target their biggest competition.

RELATED: Analysing Each AFLW Premiership Contender's Super Strength

Adelaide

8 wins, 1 loss – 203.5%

The Crows’ sole loss remains the one-point defeat to the Bulldogs as their professionalism has allowed them to keep their nerve in Round 8’s nine-point win over the Dockers, and the two-point victory over Collingwood in Round 9.

Most of the season has been spent without star Chelsea Randall, who provides great stability for the group, yet the loss of such a leader has been offset by the improvement of many midfielders and the continual availability of legend Erin Phillips.

Finding a definitive weakness in such a well-rounded group is difficult, however one particular area of the game controlled by the Magpies in Adelaide’s most recent clash may give fellow contenders a lot of hope.

From the Round 4 clash against Melbourne onwards, the Crows became maniacal with their pressure in attack – in 5 games, they averaged an astonishing 18 tackles inside 50, with a differential of +69, nearly 14 per game.

At worst breaking even in the disposal count, Adelaide became a team reliant on overwhelming the defence of the opposition, forcing errors which increased their scoring opportunities.

As Collingwood gained momentum in Round 9, the were able to control the ball in defence. With 40 more uncontested possessions and 32 more disposals overall, clearly Adelaide’s worst differential of the season, the Magpies discovered that simple ball control could frustrate and breakdown the ladder leaders.

The Crows finished with just 2 tackles inside 50, compared to Collingwood’s 13. The uncontested, ball-retention strategy deployed by the Magpies frustrated Adelaide and nearly won them the game.

In a world where competitive advantage is everything, fellow finalists will be looking to limit the forward pressure applied by the Crows, as the frustration appears to be contagious if applicable for long enough.

Punters- At TopSport, the Crows are premiership favourites and are currently paying $2.50.

Melbourne

8 wins, 1 loss – 199.1%

Becoming the first team to break the triple-figure barrier in any given match, the Demons have finally drawn universal attention and acclaim for how good their season has been. 

Defeating the Dockers by 88 points away from home was simply incredible, albeit against a shell of a team given the circumstances, was a statement not before seen by a contender, yet one Demon fans will welcome.

Again, like the Crows, Melbourne’s achilles heel is difficult to identify given how well-rounded the group is as a whole.

A by-product of ranking second in the league for disposals, is the fact that the Demons generally concede far more tackles than they lay themselves, which is a natural conclusion.

When they’ve been challenged, whether it be in their loss to Adelaide, or in close games against Richmond, Gold Coast, Brisbane, North Melbourne, they’ve generally expended far too much energy in withstanding tackles and can be caught out in transitional play, where the players are too tired to commit to defensive running.

If the Demons are overwhelmed by the tackling pressure, the opposition can move the ball far more efficiently.

In Rounds 1, 3, 6 and 9 games where the Demons have had total control from siren-to-siren, with an average winning margin of 47.5 points, the opposition went at a rate of 11 disposals per inside 50.

In the other 5 games where Melbourne suffered from stifling pressure, the average winning margin dropped to 10.25 plus the Adelaide loss, and the opposition only needed 6.52 disposals to go inside 50.

The secret to beating Melbourne? Relentless pressure, even if your back is against the wall, as it doesn’t give them enough time to set up strongly behind the ball.

Punters- The Demons are yet to win an AFLW premiership. TopSport are presently paying $2.6 on them breaking through this season. 

Brisbane

7 wins, 2 losses – 197.2%

Business is booming for the Lions, particularly given their incredibly dominant 34-point win over North Melbourne in Round 9.

The Lions are a far easier team to analyse as a whole, as their results have generally either been losses or comprehensive wins, bar Round 6’s performance against St Kilda.

After the first round, many would’ve been forgiven for assuming Brisbane’s biggest weakness would be in the backline, having lost Kate Lutkins, but in fact, it has stood up remarkably well with the Lions conceding the second-fewest points through 9 rounds.

No, the Lions’ achilles heel is inefficiency.

A high-octane, aggressively attacking team, Brisbane’s main downfall is that the team kicks themselves out of some games, whether it be through missing easy targets in kicking game, or in front of goal, as happened against the Demons, while a 3.13 performance nearly cost them against the hapless Saints.

Forcing the Lions into difficult shots on goal through defensive scheming and forcing the team into handballing more will create indecision and panic, which can easily be preyed upon by the opposition.

Inefficiency isn’t ideal for any team, but it affects no club more than the Lions heading into crunch time.

Punters- At TopSport, the Lions are paying $5 to become the first-ever back-to-back AFLW champ. 

North Melbourne

6 wins, 3 losses – 125.3%

Since identifying the strength the Kangaroos have across half-back and in retaining the ball, both the Demons and Brisbane have completely shut them down in this area and it has resulted in a two-match losing streak for North Melbourne.

In Round 8, Melbourne used decided to tag Emma Kearney, keeping her to just 11 disposals and completely evaporating the team’s bounce off half-back, while Round 9 saw pressure intensified across Brisbane forward half, restricting the amount of time defenders had to release the ball.

Over the last two games, North Melbourne’s have operated at 58% and 61% in terms of disposal efficiency, effectively proving that their biggest strength can also be their biggest weakness.

Without Emma King, the Kangaroos lacked a dominant presence around the ground which was particularly restrictive when their forward were sending the ball inside 50 but, with only one game left in the home-and-away season, it’s the ball use and freeing up the team’s elite kickers that will be vital for the team going forward.

Punters- At TopSport the Roos are paying $12 to bring a premiership cup back to Arden Street for the first time since 1999. 

Fremantle

6 wins, 3 losses – 122.5%

Here’s Fremantle’s biggest weakness – having Ebony Antonio, Kara Antonio and Emma O’Driscoll pull out an hour before the match due to health and safety protocols, to join Kiara Bowers, Janelle Cuthbertson, Gabby O’Sullivan and Amy Franklin on the sidelines.

The Dockers have fielded 11 debutants this season in order to cover absences and the fact it was this team on the receiving end of the first-ever triple-digit score isn’t an accurate representation of where the team sits.

There is, however, an element of truth to the over-reliance on Bowers.

Fremantle are 1-3 without her, with the three losses coming in the form of rivals North Melbourne, Adelaide and Melbourne.

The club will hope that Bowers is fit for finals but having missed so much time, it’s unfair for the expectation that the team’s saving grace will continue to drag them over the line if the rest of the setup fails.

Hayley Miller and O’Sullivan have stood up this season, but they’ll need to reach another level if Fremantle wants to win the flag.

Kiara Bowers is arguably the best player in the competition, but is also the avenue to Fremantle’s potential destruction come finals time.

Punters- The Dockers are paying $11 at TopSport for Fremantle to win the club its maiden premiership. 

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