Analysing The NRL's Wooden Spoon Race

The race for the NRL's wooden spoon is receiving as much attention as the minor premiership as the regular season comes to a close. With two rounds remaining, there are four teams still in the hunt for the unsought cooking instrument. 

The Stats Insider Model has crunched the numbers from now until the end of Round 25 with the results not making great reading for those in North Queensland.

Bulldogs: 1.44% chance

Ladder position: 13th - 16 points, -72 PD

The run home: @ Dragons, Sharks

Never getting higher than 13th on the ladder, the Bulldogs have been in the hunt for the spoon all season.

Let down by an attack that only averages 16.9 points per game (14th in the NRL), some early pressure on the scoreboard is usually enough for the opposition to craft the sort of momentum that sticks through to the end.

Their one-dimensional attack is easy to shut down allowing teams to concentrate on defence without the need to pile up the points themselves.

Despite all that, the Bulldogs managed 27 points against the Warriors last week, and it worked wonders for their wooden spoon chances. They entered Round 23 with an 18.9% chance of finishing the season at 16th.

The win is enough to ensure they're relatively safe ahead of two tough games against current top six sides.

Sea Eagles: 10.2% chance

Ladder position: 14th - 16 points, -88 PD

The run home: @ Tigers, @ Broncos

Back-to-back wins had seen the Sea Eagles put some distance between themselves and 16th on the ladder, but turmoil within the coaching ranks and a shocking loss to the Titans has added a level of unpredictability for the rest of the season.

Trent Barrett has all but announced he's leaving the club at the end of the season despite still having two years left on his contract. How the players respond while their coach starts packing up his office is anybody's guess at the moment.

But if we assume the Sea Eagles refrain from sulking in the corner for the remaining two weeks, they've still got a difficult road to navigate to avoid the spoon.

They blew their chance at breaking free from the race by giving up 36 unanswered points to the Titans last week. If that's a sign of things to come ahead of two games on the road, Manly is a strong option as a rough punt to end the year in 16th.

Poor in defence all season, the 42 points the Sea Eagles conceded on Friday were enough for them to leap the Knights as the worst defensive team in the NRL (conceding 25.1 points per game).

Update: After losing to the Tigers on Thursday night, the Sea Eagles will only be two competition points ahead of 16th heading into the final round. Two late tries saved their points differential to be 14 points ahead of the Eels and 24 points ahead of the Cowboys. Manly will be cheering for Parramatta on Friday night to ensure they have as many points as possible to work with should they lose in Brisbane next week.

Eels: 37% chance

Ladder position: 15th - 14 points, -104 PD

The run home: @ Cowboys, Roosters

It's been a disaster season for the Eels. Only just managing to get out of 16th spot on the ladder two weeks ago following a 147-day stand at the bottom, Parramatta still have their hands out reaching for the spoon.

There isn't a lot of hope for a side that, up until the last month, has undoubtedly been the worst team in the competition.

While they have been improving to have won three of their last five games, the remaining draw doesn't offer a lot of confidence.

With Johnathan Thurston's last ever home game coming ahead of their Round 25 matchup against the current premiership favourites, it's difficult to see the Eels winning another game this season.

Even when they stand up in defence as they did against the Storm in Round 23, Parramatta's attack leaves a lot to be desired. Not being able to put points on a Storm side playing with Cameron Munster in the bin and Brandon Smith on one leg is a worry.

Only ahead of the Tigers scoring 16.3 points per game, the Eels attack, or, lack thereof, might be what wins them the spoon in the end.

Cowboys: 49.95% chance

Ladder position: 16th - 14 points, -114 PD

The run home: Eels, @ Titans

Most people would have assumed the Cowboys would have a 49.95% chance at a premiership by the end of August. Not the wooden spoon.

Age has caught up to their stars and injuries have limited those that were meant to offer the youthful exuberance.

It's been a nightmare of a season and could still get worse with only two games to lift themselves off the bottom of the ladder.

Their pack has started to live up to expectations with a healthy Jordan McLean and Matt Scott surrounding Jason Taumalolo. However, with the big Tongan getting himself suspended and Scott injured last week, momentum has stalled.

This week against the Eels poses as their best chance with the Spoonapalooza battle primed to decide who ends up at the bottom when the season wraps up.

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