Anthony Seibold's rigid tactics could be Broncos' Achilles heel

When it comes to perks in rugby league, the Brisbane Broncos aren't hard done by. A huge player base, the financial support and the benefits of being based in a one-team town are all there. Still, they're without a premiership since 2006, and may never have been further from winning their next than they are now.

With only two wins through seven rounds in 2020, the Broncos sit 15th on the ladder. Their current five-game losing streak is the longest the club has suffered since 2012 while the 209 points conceded is the most in the club's history after seven rounds.

The excuses have come in thick and fast.

A Broncos staffer sent out a text message following their 59-0 thumping at the hands of the Roosters to highlight how young the team is. It's a fair enough point, but strangely executed.

Chairman Karl Morris backed up Anthony Seibold recently claiming it would take the embattled coach "two years for him to sort out the issues he was inheriting."

'Issues' that, of course, saw the Broncos play finals football in 2018 before Seibold himself said there was "no doubt" the 2019 outfit - and you would assume the 2020 incarnation made up of many of the same players - is a finals side.

And that seems to be a big problem at the club right now. There is zero accountability unless it's misguided accountability like, say, hooking your 18-year-old fullback who shouldn't have been on the field anyway with 15 minutes to play, leaving your team with 11 players on the field to finish the game.

The excuses start at the top and trickle down to the playing group.

Now, Seibold needs to turn things around. He must change the way his team approaches the game and rather than talking about how young his players are, talk to the players themselves about how they can overcome the perceived lack of experience.

Seibold can start by addressing their discipline. Or, rather, an uncharacteristic lack of it.

The Broncos have had the most players suspended, served the most weeks on the sideline and conceded the most penalties in the NRL through seven rounds. You don't need to be a 300-game veteran to know poor discipline produces poor results. 

In Wayne Bennett's last four seasons at the club, the Broncos finished 16th (fewest), 16th, 14th and 13th in penalties conceded per game. Bennett is a big believer in controlling the things you can - silly penalties being one of them. Seibold, on the other hand, is backing up his 11th in penalties conceded last season with the most in the competition right now.

What Seibold regularly refers to as a young and inexperienced side is repeatedly putting themselves under more pressure. That is seemingly becoming more of an issue as opposing teams navigate the new six-again rule. Brisbane's average possession per game of 44% is the lowest by more than 2% to the Gold Coast at 15th.

With the poor discipline and weight of possession it affords to the opposition, the Broncos are leaking an NRL-high 29.8 points per game.

So much of defence is about attitude; a player must want to get up in the line and put their body in front of attacking players. What we've seen out of the Broncos so far this season suggests the attitude for defence isn't there.

This Daniel Saifiti try in Round 6 is nothing short of embarrassing:

On paper, this Broncos team is made for the faster game the new six-again rule has created. They possess a big pack, but it's built on power and speed more than it is pure size like the old days of "big packs".

Payne Haas has some of the best feet we've ever seen on a big man. Matt Lodge, while a very large human, has a more than acceptable level of lateral movement to dominate through the middle in both attack and defence. So too does Tevita Pangai Jr and Thomas Flegler. Many expected this Broncos pack to be good enough to compete for the top four in 2019 - they barely snuck into the Top 8. Fast-forward 12 months and the Broncos still haven't lived up to the billing in the centre-third on either side of the ball.

How do they get there?

Get back to the basics. Use this big and powerful pack to get up the field. One-pass off the ruck to a flying Lodge. Another to Hass. Find your front and present Anthony Milford and company with a fast play-the-ball. Earn the right to play wider and have the big blokes move the ball after that.

It's a change the Knights made this season. They have more one-pass hit-ups than any team in the competition, and before their nightmare in Round 7, had performed as one of the best middles in the NRL.

Stats via Fox Sports

We do see some promise from the Broncos at times. This set highlights the good, bad and potential for improvement.

Lodge reacts to the six-again call late in the count to take a flat-footed charge before Haas produces his typically fast carry and play-the-ball - good.

The quick play-the-ball sees the A defender end up slightly behind the defensive line which allows Milford to step in off his left foot and pick up a few extra metres - good again.

Lodge then gets involved as a ball-player. He forces Ash Taylor to make a tackle which pays dividends shortly after.

With Isaac Luke able to engage the markers and Brodie Croft keeping Jai Arrow interested long enough to put Pangai Jr one-on-one with Taylor, the Broncos back-rower gets his head and arms through the line before releasing Tesi Niu into the backfield. Ideally, Niu (18) and Herbie Farnworth (20) finish the play off in the corner. We can allow Seibold to use inexperience as an excuse there.

But, as is so often the case at the moment, the Broncos lack polish. A great set in which they used their skillset perfectly ends with the ball over the sideline. At worst, Brisbane should have forced a repeat set with Corey Thompson stuck in the corner after making the covering tackle.

This promising set came early in the Broncos loss to the Titans. It's not been too uncommon to see the Broncos play better to start the match either. In fact, in their Round 3, 5, 6 and 7 losses, the Broncos have only lost the first 20 minutes by four points. They've lost in minutes 21-80 by 65 points, though.

The Broncos can run these sets as they do at training when they've just talked them through in the sheds. It's once things start to go against them and an adjustment is required on the fly that they lose their way, and in turn, lose the match.

Seibold's game plans are often talked about as complicated. He's a meticulous planner and has everything written and out ready for his players to absorb.

Perhaps letting this team he knows is so young and still learning the game absorb some contact in the middle would be better? Let this pack do what it should be able to do best rather than trying to play around teams.

To say he inherited an abundance of issues is wrong. But even if we entertain the idea for a second, Seibold's response and resulting approach has missed the mark. He's unwavering in his ideas in how this team should succeed. Instead, he shuffles the deck chairs and hopes to see a difference. Corey Oates and Darius Boyd are the two rumoured to be moving their chairs to the grandstand this week.

Seibold has the 'support of the board' but we all know that means nothing. If he keeps trying to mould the talent into something he needs to succeed rather than adjusting the team approach to maximise what he has, Seibold won't see out his five-year contract.

He may not even see the year out.

The Broncos have only missed the finals twice in the NRL era. Ivan Henjack didn't return for the following season after missing out in 2010 while Anthony Griffin was relieved of the final year of his contract the season following his 12th-placed finish in 2013.

The Stats Insider Futures model gives the Broncos just a 14.1% chance of making the Top 8 this season.

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