Are Canberra Raiders ready to win the NRL Premiership?

Just a week after pegging the Canberra Raiders as the most likely team to infiltrate the Storm/Roosters bubble of long-term success at the top of the NRL, bookmakers have installed the Green Machine as favourites for the 2020 premiership.

"The Raiders could well be the next example of how to breed success in the NRL if they can back up their 2019 Grand Final appearance with another strong season in 2020."

Unlike the Storm and Roosters who walked straight into success on the arrival of Craig Bellamy and Trent Robinson, Ricky Stuart has navigated a few different roads. Some worked, others required a U-turn.

He finished 15th and 10th in his first two seasons before a flash in the pan 2nd in 2016 behind the best attack in the competition scoring 27.2 points per game. Trying to replicate the same high-powered attack in 2017, the Raiders defence suffered as they failed to make the Top-8.

The 2018 season produced the infamous 'Canberra Faders' with no lead too great for the team to choke away. Again, their attack scored an NRL-high 23.4 points per game, but a defence conceding 22.5 points per game resulted in another 10th-placed finish.

So, what changed for the Raiders to fall just eight minutes short of lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy only a year later and how do they go the distance in 2020?

Culture Change

"Culture" is simultaneously the most overused and misunderstood word in rugby league.

To put it simply, culture covers the behaviour of the team on and off the field. It captures what they do and how they do it.

Once synonymous with off-field issues, homesickness and inconsistent on-field results, the Raiders have changed their ways. Josh Hodgson, Elliot Whitehead and Sia Soliola have driven a lot of the off-field change alongside Stuart. However, it's Stuart's surprise announcement early in 2019 that signalled the on-field adjustment which saw the Raiders reach the 2019 Grand Final.

Having spent time away after missing the finals in four of his first five seasons in Canberra, Stuart returned to preseason training with an idea:

"Alright guys, we're changing things up, we're going to be a defensive footy team."

Just like that, a team that had scored over 23 points per game in each of the previous four seasons - while no other team cracked 20+ in all four - became a defensive team. 

His players didn't touch a ball for the first two months of the preseason. Instead, they worked on conditioning and defensive structures. Those structures, in particular, were practised under fatigue.

The numbers and Grand Final appearance tell us everything we need to know.

But one good year doesn't make a good team. The Raiders know that better than most. And we all know - after working through the Stats The Matter series - that defence wins premierships.

So, the Raiders have the new-found defensive focus of potential premiers. 

What next?

Players in key positions

A significant factor in the Storm and Roosters winning over a long period is the familiar faces filling key playmaking positions. 

Cameron Smith and Jake Friend touch the ball more than any other player in the team every week; each have been at their respective clubs for over a decade. Both the Storm and Roosters have had the pleasure of sending Cooper Cronk - one of the sharpest minds in the game - out in their jersey to steer excellent talent in Cameron Munster and James Tedesco around the field.

Having elite players in key playmaking positions is one thing. Securing them for the long term and building cohesion is what wins premierships. Thanks to some careful planning as well as a bit of trial and error, the Raiders are in an excellent position to send out an elite cohesive team for the next three or four seasons.

Jack Wighton (2024), Josh Hodgson (2022), George Williams (2022) and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (2023) will make up the Raiders spine for at least the next three seasons. Most importantly, Wighton and Nicoll-Klokstad are on what should turn out to be value deals. Meanwhile, the Raiders have secured the engine room to lay the platform for just as long. In the middle, Josh Papalii (2022), Joseph Tapine(2023), Elliott Whitehead (2022) and John Bateman (2021) will get the team up the field as the club develops the likes of Corey Horsburgh (2022), Emre Guler (2021) and Hudson Young(2021).

The mix of proven talent and value youngsters is another similarity to premiership-winning Storm and Roosters teams. 

In carving out this long-term team, Stuart and the Raiders have also finally steered away from the crash and bash style and into a quicker team playing with finesse. 

Perhaps the most essential adjustment Stuart has made is a renewed focus on speed and power. It's an area the Roosters, in particular, have thrived behind. Gone are the Shannon Boyd's of yesteryear, replaced by more mobile middle forwards that can move laterally in defence and provide a little extra in attack.

Guler, in this case, runs a perfect overs line to stall Bryce Cartwright and send Whitehead over the line. 

Most former Raiders props are trying to crash over from there.

Few players are more powerful than Papalii while Bateman has the sort of speed and toughness NRL fans came to love when he burst onto the scene in 2019. They are brilliant on both sides of the ball and highlight the new focus of the club overall. 

The Raiders have put pieces of the premiership puzzle on the table and are slowly fashioning them into a Grand Final winning product. 

Is 2020 the year?

Crystal Ball

While the 2-0 start and high expectations align with what the futures model is spitting out, the Raiders are also one of the big winners of the two-month suspension.

Backing up one Grand Final appearance with another isn't easy for a team that had played just three finals games since 2012 - they'll be better for the extra rest.

John Bateman, in particular.

Instead of missing the Englishman for 11-12 matches, he will only miss two if he recovers from his shoulder injury for Round 3. Being able to spend more time developing the new right-side attack with Bateman out there will benefit the Raiders by the end of the regular season. 

Any worries of being burnt out or difficulties navigating back-to-back long seasons have been washed away with the suspended season. The Green Machine is full of gas and the Stats Insider Futures model is right behind them.

Provided the defensive numbers hold firm and we see fewer of the 10-15 minute poor periods that still remained in the Raiders' game in 2019, they will continue to develop into a competitive team over the long-term. It's not premiership or bust in 2020, but don't be surprised to see them lift the trophy any time soon. The Raiders are building something special and should be in the premiership conversation for years to come.

Tip for 2020: 3rd on the ladder and another appearance in Week 3 of the finals.

Did you enjoy this article? Join our free mailing list to get the best content delivered straight to your inbox, or join the conversation by leaving a comment below or on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.