Are the Bombers a Genuine Finals Chance?

After five rounds of the 2023 AFL season, Essendon has emerged as a finals contender. There were very little expectations on the side after they finished in the bottom four last season, with many expecting the first year under Brad Scott to be a largely rebuilding one.

Our pre-season predictions through our AFL Futures model mirrored this, with the Bombers being far from assured a chance to return to September action.

And while they faced a relatively easy first month with fixtures against the Hawks, Suns and Giants, the Bombers have now claimed a major scalp in the Demons. They downed the 2021 premiers in Saturday’s Gather Round encounter, boosting the Bombers’ top eight chances to 50.9% according to our simulations.

Currently, Melbourne is one of our AFL model's premiership favourites, currently sixth on the ladder with a predicted 84.2% chance of making the top eight and a 16.8% chance of winning the premiership. Essendon managed just one win against the eventual finalists last season, and is now halfway to that total already.

So was this victory just a one-off upset, or indicative of what’s to come for the rest of 2023 for the Bombers?

MORE: AFL Player Ratings

A New-Look Game Plan

Winning just seven games in 2022, Essendon’s defensive weaknesses were an extremely easy area for teams to exploit. The club finished the season with the third-highest points against, and gave up over 100 points on seven occasions.

This reared its head in a particular susceptibility to teams who would quickly attack when rebounding the footy, with the Bombers often failing to get set up behind the ball after pressing their defensive line high up the ground.

With more teams looking to launch scores off the half-back line after causing turnovers through their intercepting defenders, it was a key area for new coach Brad Scott to address coming into 2023.

And not only has it been addressed, but Essendon’s backline has become one of the stingiest in the competition. It has given up just 389 points in five games, the third lowest of any team.

The likes of Jayden Laverde, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Jake Kelly have been extremely accountable defensively, keeping the influence of their direct opponents well down week to week. Couple that with the intercepting and rebounding work of Jordan Ridley and Mason Redman (now ranked as the ninth best general defender in the AFL), and the Essendon defence is building as an extremely consistent unit.

Holdin' the fort. pic.twitter.com/RiezddyKly

— Essendon FC (@essendonfc) April 18, 2023

But perhaps even better than the performance of the defenders has been that of the midfielders. Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish have been well-renowned as elite midfielders, with three All-Australian blazers between them, but they’ve gone up another level this season.

Parish especially is returning to the levels of impact he reached in 2021, where he earned his first and only AA selection. While last season he became shackled as a pure in and under inside midfielder dishing out handballs to the outside, he’s now once again doing damage with his disposals.

The 25-year-old is the number one ranked player for inside 50s in the league, averaging a massive 7.6 per game. This is well above his current career high of 5.9, which he hit in 2021 in his previous career-best year.

Merrett is also ranked third overall for inside 50s, averaging 6.2 per game. The pair are also reaching career-bests for clearances, with Merrett averaging 4.6 and Parish a staggering 8.2. This sees the Dons midfield duo rated as the eighth and ninth best players in the league in our AFL Player Ratings.

The addition of former Blue Will Setterfield has unlocked the potential that the Essendon midfield has had, but failed to execute on. Not only has his own offensive output been a benefit to the side, averaging five inside 50s and 3.8 inside 50s, but his defensive work has been first class.

Setterfield has been averaging 7.2 tackles, equal second in the AFL. He has given the Bombers both an extra level of protection for the elite ball users, and an outlet to creating stoppages to allow the rest of the ground to set up.

What remains to be seen if this young Bombers side can maintain this level of output for the rest of the year. While 4-1 is a brilliant start, they are the third youngest team in the league, and younger sides tend to burn bright early and fizzle out into the winter months.

READ: AFL Schedule Difficulty

Can Essendon Keep Winning With Its Fixture?

Working against the young, exciting Bombers is their remaining fixture. Our Strength of Schedule predictions rate Essendon's run as the third most difficult in the AFL, behind only Fremantle and GWS.

This comes to a head quickly, as they take on the Magpies for the traditional ANZAC Day clash, followed by the Cats, Power, Lions and Tigers.

While Richmond is stumbling, having won just one game from its first five and sitting just above Essendon in our top eight simulations, the club will be no easy win. If you like historical trends, the Bombers haven’t beaten the Tigers since 2014 - that’s some hoodoo.

The Power and Lions are both away games, while the Cats are quickly picking up steam after a poor start. And it all starts this week with a tough clash at the MCG.

According to our simulations, Collingwood has been given a 67% chance of claiming victory on Tuesday, in a game which could be decided by a number of factors. The Pies were victorious both times the sides met last year, which will no doubt ring fresh in the minds of the Bombers.

But with the Pies quickly running out of tall options, the potential return of Sam Weideman to the Bombers forward line, and the ruck duo of Andrew Phillips and Sam Draper fresh off a career-best showing, there’s plenty of reason to believe in Essendon.

That 50.9% chance of Essendon qualifying for finals will ride heavily on how the Bombers can handle the toughest month of their fixture.