Which NRL Teams Have The Easiest Run Home In 2023?
Last updated: Aug 9, 2023, 5:09AM | Published: Aug 2, 2023, 6:38AM
The Cronulla Sharks are more likely than not to play in the 2023 NRL finals series.
According to Stats Insider's NRL futures model, the Sharks have a 66.5% likelihood of making the NRL finals despite their 0-28 defeat to the Panthers in Round 22.
The Stats Insider predictive model's assessment of Cronulla's chances differ from the odds currently available at PointsBet, who have priced the Sharks at $2.05 to make the finals.
Stats Insider's fair odds are at $1.50 for the Sharks to make the top eight, meaning the model has found an 18% edge.
The Sharks currently have the tenth hardest run home according to Stats Insider's NRL schedule difficulty model, with their next game being a difficult matchup against the Rabbitohs in Round 23.
However, Stats Insider's NRL expert said the fixture improves for Cronulla in the latter rounds.
"The Sharks go into the Round 23 matchup with Souths with a 26% winning probability, but after that, the schedule does open up," he said.
"The Sharks face the Titans in a match they're likely to go in as favourites in, before coming up against the Cowboys and Knights, two teams that are currently below them on the NRL ladder.
"While PointsBet's implied odds for the Sharks to make the finals are currently at 48.8%, our NRL futures model is still favouring Cronulla to make the finals."
The Sharks enter their Round 23 match up with the Rabbitohs as the underdogs at PointsBet.
MORE: NRL Tips For This Weekend - Round 23, 2023
2023 NRL Finals Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Penrith Panthers | 100% |
| Brisbane Broncos | 100% |
| Melbourne Storm | 98.5% |
| New Zealand Warriors | 98.3% |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 89.0% |
| Canberra Raiders | 76.5% |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 69.7% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 66.5% |
| Parramatta Eels | 36.2% |
| Newcastle Knights | 35.4% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
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(Photo by Jeremy Ng/Getty Images)
