Are the Western Bulldogs Back in the AFL Finals Frame?
Last updated: May 1, 2023, 7:55AM | Published: May 1, 2023, 6:56AM
The Western Bulldogs are eighth with Stats Insider's AFL Top 8 probabilities.
According to Stats Insider's AFL predictive model, at the completion of Round 7, the Western Bulldogs have a 54.6% chance of playing in the 2023 AFL Finals, with seven teams currently above them.
The run of winning form comes after back-to-back heavy losses to Melbourne in Round 1 by 50-points before losing 41-92 to St Kilda in Round 2.
The Bulldogs go into their Round 8 match up with the GWS Giants following a 94-65 victory over Hawthorn, which was their fourth win in five games so far in 2023.
These odds align with Betfair's assessment of the Western Bulldogs' finals chances, placing them at the $2.04 mark.
The news isn't as great for Essendon.
After a 28-point loss to the Cats in Round 7, the Bombers find themselves outside the Top 8 for the first time in 2023.
Essendon is 43.4% probability to make the AFL finals following a back-to-back losses for the first time this AFL season.
After Essendon lost by 13-points on Anzac Day against Collingwood prior to the 104-132 loss to the Cats, the Bombers dropped to 10th place in our Top 8 probabilities.
Essendon travels to Adelaide to face Port Adelaide in Round 8, in a game our AFL predictive model has the Bombers as the underdogs.
2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Winning Probability |
| Collingwood Magpies | 95.5% |
| Melbourne Demons | 94.0% |
| Geelong Cats | 90.8% |
| Brisbane Lions | 83.0% |
| St Kilda Saints | 74.0% |
| Port Adelaide Power | 72.4% |
| Carlton Blues | 71.8% |
| Western Bulldogs | 54.6% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publishing.
MORE: 2023 AFL Futures
Melbourne regains top spot in AFL Premiership Probabilities
Melbourne is the most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership.
The Demons came into their Round 7 game against the Kangaroos following 27-point loss to the Bombers in Round 5 where they went in with 71% win probability and a 96-78 win against the bottom 4 Tigers, a game they trailed in at every break of play.
Melbourne rubber stamped its AFL premiership winning credentials with a complete performance against North Melbourne, kicking a goal within the opening minute and never once going behind in the match to win 139-49, the Demons biggest win so far in 2023.
Melbourne's jump to the top of the ladder coincides with a favourable run according to the Stats Insider 2023 AFL Schedule Difficulty, which gives the Demons the fifth easiest upcoming AFL schedule.
Melbourne's next game is against the 13th placed Gold Coast Suns, a match our AFL predictive model favours the Demons to win.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
