Are Wests Tigers a Lock for Most Losses in the NRL?

After six rounds of the 2023 NRL season, the Wests Tigers sit two games adrift of the 16th placed Raiders at the bottom of the ladder. Although they've come close to breaking through, including last week's 6-point loss the Eels, they haven't been able to snap their now 11-game losing streak.

While perhaps reassuringly for Tigers fans, it's small moments costing them games and not total uncompetitiveness like last season, games like the 46-12 loss to the Broncos in Round 5 point to a team that's still a long way off seriously competing.

Pre-season, the reigning wooden spooners weren’t necessarily expected to claim the unwanted award again, with many tipping them to improve after sliding to rock-bottom. With the signing of the likes of Isaiah Papali'i, captain Api Koroisau and John Bateman, there was some optimism around what the Tigers could achieve.

But after six winless weeks, there’s been a number of factors that have contributed to the Tigers becoming our outright favourites for the most losses in the NRL for 2023.

MORE: 2023 NRL Futures

Tigers Falling Behind the Pack

While the Tigers have shown signs of improvement so far this season, their fellow struggling sides from last season have made much more of a step. It’s leaving Tim Sheens’ men with very few ‘easy’ match-ups in 2023.

The New Zealand Warriors, who finished 15th in 2022, have been one of the biggest risers this season. With a brilliant off-season, the Warriors are now a 40% chance of making finals, according to our futures model.

Newcastle has similarly already won three games and drawn one, after managing only six wins total in 2022. The same can be said of the Titans and Bulldogs, who have both already defeated the Tigers in their early season clashes.

Round 1 and Round 2 against the Titans and Knights were the games that our models gave the Tigers the highest probabilities of winning. They came in as favourites both times, and had as high as a 65.5% chance of winning during play against the Titans.

It wasn’t a strong first showing of what the Tigers may be able to achieve in 2023. Line breaks seemed to be far too easy for the Titans, with players getting unmarked and punishing the defence which seemed to get caught sleeping far too much.

It has been first halves that have been letting the Tigers down massively so far in 2023.

They’ve trailed going into the sheds in every game of the season so far, leaving them playing catch-up for the last 40 minutes every week. This was ultimately the difference in the games against the Bulldogs and the Storm, despite nearly mounting a big comeback in the former.

Capitalising off the Bulldogs’ errors and finishing sets strongly near the try line, the Tigers managed three tries in just over four minutes at Belmore. But it was ultimately a bridge too far, ending in another loss against an opponent that could have been gettable.

The match against the Storm saw all four of the opposition’s tries scored in the first half, leaving the Storm to defend for the last 40 and repel the Tigers’ attacks. This will undoubtedly be one of the key areas addressed as they enjoy their first bye of the season this week.

READ: NRL Tips for this Weekend, Round 7, 2023

Where Could the Tigers Find Wins?

As it stands, the Tigers have a 55.7% chance of suffering the most losses in 2023 according to our futures model, which is far and beyond the worst in the NRL. No other team is in double figures percentage-wise, with the Dragons currently placed second at just a 7.6% chance.

Perhaps embarrassingly for the Tigers, they'll earn their first two points for the 2023 NRL season via a Round 7 bye. Discovering where they'll find the first win of the season is a challenging prospect for the bottom-placed team.

Losing the games earmarked as winnable now has the Tigers in a very tough spot for the remainder of the 2023 season. Some serious improvement will be needed both offensively and defensively to overcome what our 2023 NRL schedule difficulty analyser assessed as the fourth most difficult schedule.

Their best chances of victory will come against the Dragons, with the Tigers playing both sides twice. They’ll meet the 16th placed Raiders in Round 14 and Round 23, with the first meeting being at home.

The Dragons may be harder to unseat, particularly at home. While they have only won two games, against the Dolphins and Titans, both have been convincing victories at home. The Dragons have been nearly a completely different side at home, averaging 35 points when hosting, compared to 14.6 when travelling.

But with a difficult month ahead which includes away games against South Sydney and Stats Insider's NRL premiership favourites Penrith, even if the Tigers do claim their first win soon, it won’t get any easier from there.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)