Are Wests Tigers ready to play finals footy in 2020?
Sep 16, 2019, 3:34AMAnother year, another 9th-placed finish for the Wests Tigers.
It's comical how often the Tigers have managed to finish one spot short of the finals in their 20-year history. They finished 9th in 2004, 2007, 2009, 2016, 2018, and now again in 2019.
The jokes write themselves.
However, the Tigers may not be the butt of many jokes for long. Despite falling short of a fairytale regular-season finish at Leichhardt in Round 25, there is hope for the club moving forward.
They appear to have finally found a coach in Michael Maguire that is prepared to settle in, do the hard work, and find success. Something none of Mick Potter, Jason Taylor or Ivan Cleary have managed to do since Tim Sheens left the club at the end of 2012.
There is hope for this playing group given the number of changes made throughout the year, and how far the current crop went with so much of their salary cap tied up in reserve grade.
While wounds of another finals-free season are still fresh, Tigers fans can be optimistic for an improved 2020 season. Although, that doesn't necessarily mean an end to the finals drought.
2019 Attack
If you were to sit behind the posts at a Tigers game, your neck received a workout similar to what you'd expect at Rod Laver Arena.
Wests search for their points on the edges. They play to a position on one side of the posts, shift to the other, and repeat.
Their middle players accounted for just 33.5% of total possessions - the lowest percentage in the competition. Wests middle's also accounted for the lowest percentage of tackles taken in the opposition half at just 32.9%.
It was all very side-to-side early on in the season, and as you'd expect, easy to defend. Scores of 8, 8, 6, 12, 0, 14, 16 and 12 plagued their opening two-thirds of the year to see them average just 17.3 points per game - a number that would rank 12th in the NRL by the end of Round 25.
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Things began to change towards the end of the season when Corey Thompson grew more comfortable in the fullback jersey. He pushes through the middle a lot more than Moses Mbye ever did. Playing off shoulders and offering support runs is Thompson's game. Mbye, on the other hand, spent a lot of his time as a backdoor option on Wests predictable shifts. He found himself tackled in possession a lot more than Maguire would have liked.
So came the change.
The Tigers averaged 22.5 points per game throughout the last two months of the season.
This try here is a prime example of Thompson offering more on his feet, straightening up the play, and setting up a try on the outside. It's quite likely this play ends with Mbye caught with the ball or directing Esan Masters to the sideline in the first half of the season.
While the Tigers attack did improve as the season wore on, it could never be relied upon. Plenty grew excited over back-to-back 40-point games in Round 23 and 24. However, when up against a competent defence, and one that isn't either playing the worst 80-minute performance of any team this season (Round 23), or, playing out the whole season with the second-worst defence in the competition (Round 24), the Tigers struggled at times.
Robbie Farah offered a lot of creativity out of dummy half and his retirement will impact how the teams direct their attack in 2020. The veteran plays, like this quick maths exercise here, are something they won't be able to replace for Round 1.
There are encouraging signs for 2020, but still some work to do and holes to fill before Wests become a true attacking force.
2019 Defence
Wests' scramble defence was their pride and joy to start 2018.
Finding ways to win games while only averaging 15.7 points per game themselves, the Tigers spent the first 12 rounds of the 2018 season inside the Top 8. But fatigue set in. They couldn't keep up with the rigours of a high-intensity scramble for all 25 rounds and allowed 22.2 points per game through them across the second half of the season compared to just 14.7 points per game in the first.
Similarly, Maguire asks a lot of his players physically. He's known for working them hard in the off-season and, right now, is still at Tigers HQ and having them train right up until the week of the Grand Final.
Unlike Cleary's scramble, Maguire's results speak for themselves over a longer period than 12 weeks. Maguire's Rabbitohs finished 4th, 4th, 1st and 6th in defence in his first four years at the club. Perhaps, as some suggest, the physical toll his coaching style has on his players is the reason why they fell out of the Top 8 in his final two years with the club. Nevertheless, he's coached decent defensive teams over a number of seasons and has the Tigers on a good path in his first here.
The Tigers conceded 20.3 points per game in 2019. Not ideal, but an improvement on their finish to the 2018 season.
Points Conceded | Tackles | Missed Tackles | Ineffective Tackles | |
Tigers Average | 20.3 | 337.2 | 25.9 | 14.6 |
NRL Average | 19.7 | 357.5 | 30.7 | 16.1 |
Some youth and a little more mobility in has helped them concede just 15 tries through the middle all season. Only four clubs allowed fewer across the 25 rounds of footy.
The aging and laterally challenged Russell Packer and Ben Matulino have been swapped out for the likes of Josh Aloiai, Thomas Mikaele, Oliver Clark and Alex Twal. Veteran Elijah Taylor has been in and out of the squad with the sized and strength of Matt Eisenhuth and Ryan Matterson preferred at the lock position.
While the overall numbers might not be there for the Tigers this season - their 20.3 points conceded per game is in the bottom half of the NRL - the personnel and consistency are developing.
Outside of the ambush at Bankwest Stadium in Round 6, a lesson from the Roosters, and copping the Rabbitohs at their pre-Origin peak, the Tigers only conceded over 30 points once more. For the most part, they held teams they should be able to handle in the teens and kept up with those closer to the top of the ladder.
The Tigers weren't outstanding defensively in 2019, but nobody thought they would be when it kicked off. Like the attack, the signs in defence are encouraging.
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2020 Outlook
Perhaps its because they sit there on the ladder now, but 9th feels right again for the Tigers in 2020. A better 9th, though. One that sees them spend most of the season in the Top 8 conversation instead of the talk being around the inevitable drop off.
One where we can finally see some consistency in their results and perhaps even a three-game winning streak. They've only managed two three-game winning streaks in a season since early 2014.
This side is capable of playing finals footy in 2020, but at this stage, need a lot to go their way in the injury department. Unless they can find any clubs interested in their services, the Tigers will still have the big-money deals of Matulino (2020), Packer (2021), Chris McQueen (2020) and possibly Josh Reynolds (2021) burning a hole in their pocket from reserve grade.
It puts a strain on their depth, and while any of the above can be somewhat relied upon for a handful of games as cover, the Tigers will struggle should they wear too many long-term injuries.
Not all 9th's are created equal.
Another for the Tigers next year might not be so bad while they get their backroom in order.
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