Australia World Cup 2022 Predictions, Betting Tips, Odds and Best Bets

Last updated: Nov 15, 2022, 2:45PM | Published: Nov 9, 2022, 12:02PM

Stats Insider, Australia's leading predictive analytics site, has used its powerful football model to determine how likely it is that the Socceroos can progress to each stage of the FIFA World Cup 2022.

Australia has been drawn in Group D of the World Cup 2022, with games against France, Tunisia and Denmark determining whether they will make the knockout stage.

Australia FIFA World Cup 2022 Fixtures (AEDT)

Australia vs France: 23 November, 6:00AM
Australia vs Tunisia: 26 November, 9:00PM
Australia vs Denmark: 1 December, 2:00AM

After failing to qualify in seven straight World Cups from 1978 through 2002, Australia is making its fifth straight World Cup appearance in 2022. The Socceroos are trying to escape the group stage for just the second time in the nation's World Cup history after doing so in 2006.

Australia World Cup Predictions

The odds are against Australia according to Stats Insider's model, which gives France an 88.1% chance of advancing out of Group D and Denmark a 74.9% chance of doing so. Australia made the knockout stage in 17.5% of our model's group stage simulations, with Tunisia doing just slightly better at 19.5%.

If Australia does advance into the round of 16 for the first time since 2006, its most likely opponents would be Argentina at 51.7%, Poland at 23.2% and Mexico at 19.9%.

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Australia's Odds for World Cup 2022

After simulating the entirety of the 2022 World Cup 10,000 times, Australia came out on top just nine times, proving that although it's highly unlikely, it is not impossible for the Socceroos to win it all in Qatar.

Of the Socceroos' nine projected World Cup final wins, three were against Brazil, with the other victories coming against Spain, Serbia, Uruguay, Netherlands, Argentina and Cameroon.

Australia also made the final and lost in 22 more simulations, with France leading the way with five wins in those.

When looking at Group D in particular, Australia is the least likely to advance to the round of 16 with a probability of 17.5% or fair odds of $5.71.

Stage of World Cup 2022	Stats Insider Probability	Best Betfair odds
Overall winner	0.1%	$810
Make the final	0.3%	$300
Make the semi final	1.3%	$34
Make the quarter final	4.9%	$26
Make the round of 16	17.5%	$5.50
Win Group D	4.0%	$26

Odds and probabilities are correct as of 10 November.

Australia World Cup 2022 Best Bets

As it stands, our model rates Australia as having an 8.2% chance of winning their opening game against France, meaning any odds above $12.20 would give punters taking the Socceroos to win an edge on the market.

MORE: FIFA World Cup 2022 Golden Ball Preview

Betting Tips for Australia

With the latest odds from Betfair below, check out the best bets to make on France vs Australia, including head-to-head, over/under 2.5 goals, and both teams to score.

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Stats Insider is your home of World Cup 2022 predictions, with the latest FIFA World Cup 2022 news, predictions for every World Cup 2022 game, and futures odds for each stage of the World Cup 2022.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.