BBL Market Preview - Saturday Double Header

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08! 

Three big edges today with the model looking to continue it's streak after nailing the Sixers edge last night despite the dominance of D'Arcy Short for the Hurricanes. 

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MATCH PAGE: Stars v Thunder

MATCH PAGE: Scorchers v Heat

Head to Head

No suggested bets here from the model at Metricon but a 4% edge to the Thunder looks in line with the markets who have the Thunder $1.77 favourites. Very hard to see the Stars mustering the early wickets needed to put this powerful Thunder top order in trouble, especially without Lamichhane. His loss is reflected in the suggested bet in the 'Leading After 6 Overs' market below. 

Some slight value (3%) in the late game for the Heat who bookies are underestimating according to the model but no suggested bet. 

Team Leading after 6 Overs

6% edge for the Thunder from the model here with Buttler, Watson and Ferguson expected to go harder in the early overs than Dunk/Stoinis/Larkin. Unless Boland or Plunkett bowl out of their you know what, that Thunder top order should have no problem piercing the field in the power play. 

No value in the late game here. 

Fall of 1st Wicket

Another suggested bet from the model here with a 6% edge for the Stars at the Under 21.5 runs. The model is expecting an early pole to fall for the Stars (B Dunk I'm looking at you!). 

A 3% edge for the Heat Under 20.5 runs is the highest edge here and given what Behrendorff did to the Strikers top order it looks a solid bet, but no suggested bets in this market for the model in the late game. 

Most Sixes

No value in the early game. Hopefully, you got amongst the early value in the late game in Perth yesterday. The model had a 6% edge for the Heat for Most Sixes but markets have caught up and readjusted the model's edge. Always pays to check the Match Pages both early and late to get access to all value. 

High Bat

I don't like the value but Maxwell is likely to see plenty of time at the crease tonight. At $4's he looks a little short though. For the Thunder it's the same, Buttler looks far and away the man most likely but at $3.50 he is hard to have. Still, Short was short last night and romped home. There is a reason these class players are favourites in this market. 

Joe Burns has drifted from 7's to $8's. Love it. Should see plenty of time at the crease and for his class and exposure that is a sensational price. Not a lot of value in the Scorchers lineup in this market, Klinger at $5's may not have too much to do if the bowlers toppled the Heat cheaply. 

Player of the Match

Daniel Sams at $17's is value for the Thunder. He will get access to the Stars top order and should also get access to mop what is a long Stars tail at the end of the innings. If he chips in with a 20 off 10 with the bat and takes a few wickets (very possible) he looks great value. Maxwell the man from the Stars but $8's looks unders for mine. 

Behrendorff at $15's is a good price as is Pattinson ($17), Cutting ($17) and Burns ($17). 

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