BBL Markets Preview Game 24 - Thunder v Heat
Last updated: Jan 8, 2019, 9:56PM | Published: Jan 8, 2019, 1:16AM
Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!
In what could be a rain-affected game tonight the Stats Insider model is liking the Brisbane Heat to clear the fence more than the Sydney Thunder.
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Head to Head
No suggested bet in this main market to kick-start the preview today with just a slight 2% edge for the visitors at 49%. It's a market that becomes very hard to have confidence in given the likelihood of precipitation limiting overs.
Highest Opening Partnership
Another smaller 2% edge, again for the visitors. Interesting given the problems that McCullum has had so far this series. Not a market I'll be touching tonight either.
Most Sixes
This is where the bet comes from the model with a 7% edge for the Heat for Most Sixes tonight. I like this bet. It may seem a little risky given the power hitting of Buttler and Watson (and even Sams down the order) but the Heat have fence-clearers from their openers all the way down to Cutting. It's an incredibly strong power-hitting batting lineup and the model has enjoyed plenty of success already this season backing the Heat in this market.
High Bat
In a possibly rain-affected game like tonight, it is really important to be watching the radar. It is not enough to know if it's going to rain but WHEN. That is the big info because it impacts all of these markets significantly. Will one team bat 20 overs and the chasers get just 6? Will it hit halfway through the first innings and make the game a 10-10? These questions are vital.
Max Bryant at $5's is great value tonight. The kid is fearless and will look to be very aggressive against Cook early. Like Watto tonight as well at the $4.25 quote. His price has gone out due to the dominance of Buttler but he is just as capable of a big game here.
Player of the Match
Jono Cook at $26's presents value against a Heat top order that will be ultra-aggressive towards him. Ahmed at $13's is a gift, loves Spotless and if the rain stays away this price is massive overs. Mujeeb at $10's is also solid on a very spin-friendly pitch. Also Swepson if the rain stays away and he plays. At $21's he is well worth a look at odds.
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