BBL Markets Preview Game 26 - Heat v Renegades

Last updated: Jan 10, 2019, 12:45AM | Published: Jan 10, 2019, 12:40AM

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut!) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!

Two suggested bets tonight from the Stats insider model in what looks like a runs-fest at the Gabba between the Heat and Renegades

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Stars v Scorchers

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Head to Head

No edge in the main market with the model, like the bookies, leaning Heat (55%). Value elsewhere tonight.

Most Sixes

Big edge for the Heat to clear the fence more than the Renegades with no Finch tonight. Love it. Taking the Heat for most sixes in any game is just a solid play and the model has spotted a solid edge here.

Fall of First Wicket

A second suggested bet albeit a lesser edge for the Heat to beat the 21.5pt line for fall of first wicket. I do like this as well, given McCullum's comments last game that he was going to be more composed early. That should rub off on the rookie as well. They only need 2-3 overs to clear that total too.

High Bat

Lynn ($2.75) the obvious favourite but there is value here. McCullum ($4.50) and Cutting ($11) who I expect will be elevated to #5 if the openers start well are both solid value plays.

For the visitors, I do like some value down the list. Nabi ($11) and Christian ($11) both appeal against a team that has struggled at the top of the order all season. Harper at $5's is a solid play - he should see plenty of opportunity tonight against a lesser Heat bowling unit.

Player of the Match

Riding McCullum at $11's tonight. Like Cutting at $17's. Lynn just far too short at $6's.

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Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!