BBL Markets Preview Game 27 - Strikers v Stars

Jan 10, 2019, 11:24PM

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut!) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!

One suggested bet from the Stats Insider model and a ton of exotics value at the Adelaide Oval tonight as the Strikers host the Stars sans their superstar all-rounders.

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Stars v Scorchers

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Head to Head

No bet in the main market with bookmakers and the model both heavily favouring the home side tonight. A slight 2% edge for the Stars from the model acknowledges that markets may have drifted too far towards the Strikers especially considering they are without Siddle, Stanlake and Carey.

Most Sixes

Really surprising to me that there is not an edge for the Strikers here. Monitor closer to game start as I suspect that even without Carey, the Strikers are a great chance to take this market down. If Gulbis goes cheaply I just don't see anyone in that Stars batting lineup who consistently clears the fence, so 2-3 majors from the Strikers gets it done you'd think and with Weatherald/Head/Ingram all teeing off against 8 overs of spin and some slightly-above medium pace, i'm much more bullish on it than the model.

Fall of First Wicket

Here is where we find our suggested bet from the model and it comes for the Stars at the Under 19.5 runs. It's an interesting call today with no Stanlake or Siddle at the top so monitor closer to game time.

High Bat

For the home side i like Ingram at $4's and always enjoy putting a saver bet on Wells at $9's but its in the Stars batting where i think the best value can be found. Larkin at $6's is the play. He slid down that slippery batting pole last start but I think he will be in early tonight and if he sees off Khan he can set up a run-a-ball half century quite easily.

Player of the Match

Like the value about Laughlin tonight at $21's and Liam Bowe at $34's is a bowler that can jag a 3/25 on a good night to get his team home. Ingram at $11 offers value as well. Rashid Khan looks just too short at $6's.

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Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!