BBL Markets Preview Game 3: Thunder v Stars

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08! 

Last night we hit on both Fall of First Wicket markets as well as Scorchers Highest Opening Partnership but as for the Scorchers winning, well, that did not go to script at all. Suspect Perth thought they had it won before they even got off the plane. 

Here's hoping Game 3 will produce a more traditional game where runs are actually scored. Make sure you jump on to the Thunder v Stars Match Page to see exactly what the model is saying about tonight's match.

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RELATED: 2018-19 BBL Team Projections

Head to Head

Slight 2% edge for the Stars at the $2 price from the model here in a game that is likely to produce plenty of runs on that flat Manuka Oval wicket. Very close game this, there is some weather forecast this evening in Canberra so keep an eye on the radar to see if it will impact play at any stage. 

Fall of 1^st Wicket

We are 3/4 in this market to start the season (would be 4/4 if Bryant could catch!) and tonight both myself and the model like Stars Unders and Thunder Overs. Shane Watson and Jos Buttler are both far less nervous starters than Ben Dunk and Marcus Stoinis/Travis Dean and the Stars just lack opening seam quality compared to the Thunder. 

Most Sixes

The model has identified a 4% edge for the Stars in this market tonight. Dunk, Stoinis, Glen Maxwell, and even Evan Gulbis can clear the fence, but the Thunder possesses plenty of heavy hitters as well including young Jason Sangha and paceman Daniel Sams who should bat #5 and #6. The model is with Dunk and Maxy to both fire in this market though and that is not a bad position to be in at all. 

High Bat

Buttler at $3.50 and Maxwell at $3.55 are both clear first choices for mine. Both class and if they get going they are unstoppable. For those chasing value, Daniel Sams is at 26-1 and will bat #6 for the Thunder. He is a power hitter and really if he is even getting a bat, it means the Thunders top order have largely failed. 

Most Wickets

Obvious option for the Stars here is Dwayne Bravo at $3.50 who will get his 4 overs and bowl at the death. Lance Morris may be worth considering at $6's, the young West Australian quick could surprise a few with his raw pace tonight.  Sams at $5 and Arjun Nair all the way down the list at $8's both offer value in a market where 2 wickets probably wins it outright tonight. 

Player of the Match

Again, Buttler and Maxwell are the class players here and both at $8's in this popular market. For value, I can see the young gun Sangha at $21's guide his team home from the middle order with a monster innings.

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