BBL Markets Preview Game 31: Stars v Hurricanes

Jan 14, 2019, 12:44AM

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut!) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!

Two value plays have been identified by the Stats Insider model tonight as the Stars look to salvage their season against the ladder-leading Hurricanes at the MCG.

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Stars v Hurricanes

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Head to Head

The model thinks the markets are slightly under where they should be on for the Hurricanes in the main market, with a 2 edge for the visitors but no suggested bet.

Most Sixes

Surprisingly the model does not like the Hurricanes in this market tonight, identifying a $% edge for the Stars instead. No suggested bet though.

Fall of First Wicket

The big edge from the model comes in this market for the Stars 22.5, an 8% edge for the Under. An interesting call given the start Gulbis and Dunk made last game but with Archer opening the bowling and a part time opener like Gulbis it is easy to live this play from the model.

After Six Overs

A lesser edge for the Hurricanes in this market (4%) which i really like. Even if Bird's swing or Boland's rubbish takes an early wicket, the Hurricanes do tend to score very quickly in the power play so being on the visitors is somewhere i want to be in this market tonight.

High Bat

Playing a straight bat to this market tonight. Short at $3's is the play, saver on McDermott though at $6.50. Larkin ($5) is the ultra safe play for the Stars.

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Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!