BBL Markets Preview Game 33: Heat v Thunder

Jan 16, 2019, 11:28PM

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut!) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!

The Stats Insider model is taking a cautious approach to tonight's game at the Gabba where both sides have stacked their batting with no suggested bets at this early stage.

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Heat v Thunder

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Head to Head

Absolutely zero (literally zero) value in the main market according to the Stats Insider model with the Heat at 55% and the Thunder at 45%. I think the toss will be especially big tonight because whoever bats first can really place the chasers under run-rate pressure. Check back with the match page closer to start time.

Most Sixes

The heat are 57% favourites in this market but the bookies have priced them pretty much accordingly with a 2% edge from the model for the home side.

High Bat

If you like chasing value the $11's about Ben Cutting is too high. With no Burns or Renshaw, Cutting is a very very good chance to bat #4 tonight and could spend considerable time at the crease.

For the Thunder there is some value down the order with Lenton ($9's) and Nair ($13's) both solid plays. If the Heat bat first and post a big total the Thunder top order could collapse cheaply which brings Lenton and Nair right into play.

Player of the Match

Call me crazy but I love the $13 price about Callum Ferguson tonight. Is due to come in and really build a big score. Cutting at $15's and Lenton at $21's.

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Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!