BBL Markets Preview Game 35: Renegades v Stars

Jan 18, 2019, 9:56PM

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut!) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!

Finch, Maxwell, Stoinis, Zampa, Handscomb - the big guns are back in the big bash and the Stats Insider model has found a solid edge tonight as we head to Marvel for another exciting Melbourne Derby.

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Renegades v Stars

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Head to Head

A very slight 1% edge for the Stars at the $1.85 price from the model in the main market says loud and clear that bookies have got this one pretty spot on. Tough to gauge whether the four returning guns from the Stars (Maxwell, Stoinis, Zampa and Handscomb) can counter a renegades bowling unit that has bowled brilliantly on their home deck so far this season.

Most Sixes

A suggested bet from the model i the Most Sixes market for the Stars tonight. The return of their big guns in Maxy and Stoinis (and the surprising ability of Handscomb to clear the fence in his only game on BBL this season) certainly gives the visitors vastly improved six hitting ability and for the model, the bookies have the Stars a little shot in this market. Possibly due to Finch being back? Value on the Stars here.

High Bat

We're going to throw some darts here for the High bat at a vanue which has not favoured long-lasting partnerships or nor high scoring innings in general.

Cam White should come in at #5 tonight and at $7's looks a solid value play. I'm not touching the openers with Jackson Bird bowling so well for the Stars. Dan Christian at $15's appeals strongly for me as well. Yes he will bat #7 but if he gets even 5 overs it means he won't need to score many to take it.

Maxy is the safe play at $4's but i'd have a little saver on Gulbis at $21's tonight - there is every chance he may still open given how aggressive he has been in the last two games. Maxwell may just give him license to thrill at the top instead of not even using him at #8 or wherever he would bat otherwise.

Player of the Match

On a pitch that has been bowling-friendly, Richardson ($17's), Wildermuth ($21) and Bird ($21) all appeal as much higher than they should be. Throw in Dan Christian ($17) and Bravo ($15) to that list as well.

I just don't see a huge match-winning innings from a top order batsman tonight, so a 3-wicket haul (or 2 wickets, good economy and some late order runs) could take this market down.

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Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!