BBL Markets Preview Game 46: Renegades v Thunder

Jan 29, 2019, 11:01PM

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut!) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!

Two suggested bets tonight at Marvel Stadium as the Melbourne Renegades play host to an in-form Sydney Thunder side that the Stats Insider model is not all that keen on early.

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Renegades v Thunder

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After 6 Overs

It's a 50/50 market according to the bookies by the model has spied a solid 6% edge for the Renegades to be leading after 6 overs here. Completely agree. The Renegade bowlers have been super stingy early on at Marvel, stemming run rate and taking early wickets.

Fall of 1st Wicket

Plenty of correlation for the second suggested bet with the model liking the Thunder to lose an early wicket, identifying a 5% edge for the Under 21.5 runs. Like both bets today. Model spot on.

High Bat

We were on fire yesterday in Hobart nailing Ross at $11's and Short at $3. Time to keep the momentum going.

With Finch anchoring the market at $3 for the Renegades it is very appealing to chase lower order value, especially on a deck that will cause headaches for the batsmen. Dan Christian ($11) is likely to bat #6 tonight which presents plenty of value if early wickets fall.

For the visitors Ferguson and Watson will be the popular choices but I'm looking down the list again. This is the kind of pitch that should suit Jason Sangha ($7) and I'll be having a little saver on Chris Green at $17 who could bat #6 tonight depending on what they do with Baxter Holt. Speaking of the young keeper/batsman, he could be well worth a little dip at odds especially given he could open with Watson.

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Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!