BBL Markets Preview Game 54 and 55: Saturday Double

Feb 8, 2019, 10:49PM

Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut!) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!

Not much value in the early game but plenty about in the late game in Sydney as the ladder-leading Hurricanes travel to take on a power-up Thunder team with three returning Test players.

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Strikers v Scorchers

MATCH PREDICTIONS: Thunder v Hurricanes

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H2H

The early game is a bit of a crapshoot with so many unknowns around team lists and general enthusiasm for the contest given that neither side can make finals but the late game in Sydney is where the model has found some value.

A 6% edge for the Hurricanes in the main H2H market has been identified as the bookies overreact (according to the model) to the inclusions of Cummins, Patterson and Khawaja. I tend to agree, Spotless is a tough deck to play on first up after batting on the roads of Manuka and Brisbane. I'll take the $2.05 about the Hurricanes all day. Nice spot model!

Fall of First Wicket

Curious second edge in this game with the model anticiptaing an early wicket to fall for the Thunder despite a likely opening combination of Watson and Khawaja. There is a chance Patterson could open and Watto bat #3 but regardless, the model likes the Under 25.5 runs for the Thunder.

High Bat

Jono Wells at $6 tonight looks super solid. Should bat #4 and if a few early wickets fall he will have all innings to bat out a big score. For the Scorchers i like the $5 about Ashton Turner. A lot!

I'm all over the $5 about Ferguson in the late game at Spotless coming off a last-start 52 run effort here and in super touch in general. Should bat #4 tonight and steer the innings home.

Caleb Jewell for the Hurricanes presents value at $6. Early wickets do fall at Spotless so taking someone down the Hurricanes list (McDermott at $7.50) looks a better strategy than going on Short or Wade tonight.

Player of the Match

Jono Wells at $17 for Player of the Match in the early game is great value whilst Rashid Khan at $9 looks a good saver.

In the late game fire up your Qais Ahmad at $26! Will love the Spotless deck and should be close to $15 than where he is priced.

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Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!