BBL Markets Preview - Scorchers v Strikers
Last updated: Dec 25, 2018, 10:23PM | Published: Dec 25, 2018, 10:20PM
Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!
The Boxing Day value has not extended to the cricket tonight with markets seemingly right on the money in Scorchers v Strikers game according to the model.
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RELATED: 2018-19 BBL Team Projections
Head to Head
It’s not often you see the Scorchers outsiders at home but that is what we have today. The model sees nothing wrong with the Strikers favouritism, in fact there is a small 3% edge for the Strikers in the H2H market.
Highest Opening Partnership
Very interesting market today this one. Alex Carey/ Jake Weatherald are obviously more stable and the model agrees, identifying a 4% edge for the Strikers in this market. But with Jason Berehndorff and Nathan Coulter-Nile (or possibly the swing of David Willey) it is easy to envision an early Strikers wicket falling.
Most Sixes
Pretty even in this one from the model with the slightest 1% edge for the home side. Shouldering arms again it seems in what is a very even contest that the bookies look to have got pretty spot on.
High Bat
Time to find some value in these High Bat markets!
I love looking down the order in games that feature strong bowling attacks and this game is very much one of them. We almost got there with Jon Wells last start at 10’s. He has come into $9 now but I think he is much better value in this game. Very easy to see the Strikers 3 down before the ten over mark and Wells knows the Strikers are almost 4 out all out at the moment without Travis Head. he will accumulate then dash at the end.
Call me crazy, but I am seeing an Ashton Agar day today. At $13’s for High Bat, Agar will be the one to benefit from a Rashid Khan middle-order blitzkrieg. Agar is probably the teams best batsman all things said and done, he just needs the time at the crease and if Khan fires or Stanlake early, then Agar will get that time at great odds.
Most Wickets
Ben Laughlin at $4.50 is value. Death bowlers get cheap junky wickets and whether Khan fails or dominates, Perth will still be trying to hit out late which brings Laughlin right into play.
Likewise I think conditions suits Andrew Tye here with the ball. Adelaide are not a deep batting side and past Wells, Tye will clean up that tail. If they are 4/5 down when Tye comes on he could finish with 4 and win it outright.
Player of the Match
Like Agar (think Adelaide will go after him which brings him into play), like Wells and I’d have a little bit on Laughlin and Tye in a game I suspect will come down to who can finish off an innings with the ball best.
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