We're three weeks into the 2022 NRL season and still trying to get a grasp on what is real and what isn't.

We know the Penrith Panthers are, in fact, very good. The Melbourne Storm tasted defeat in Round 3 but we can lock them into a spot towards the top of the ladder, too. The Wests Tigers and New Zealand Warriors, on the other hand, put themselves firmly into the wooden spoon conversation with an eye-sore 80 minutes in which neither wanted, nor deserved to win last week. 

It's obviously early days and a lot can change. With that said, it's a good time to check in with the Stats Insider Futures model to get an idea of what might be to come over the next 22 rounds.

RELATED: Check out all of Stats Insider full NRL season projections

Brisbane Broncos

Premiership: 0.9%
Top 4: 5.4%
Top 8: 24.4%
Wooden Spoon: 8.1%

The Brisbane Broncos kicked off the 2022 NRL season with two impressive wins before crashing back to reality following a 38-12 thrashing at the hands of the Cowboys.

Adam Reynolds is already making his presence felt in the side. The way he moved the team around the field and finished their 16-10 win over the Bulldogs was the difference between victory and defeat in the end.

However, Round 3 came as a reality check. The Broncos defence, while improved, still has a lot of work to do. A young middle still lacks consistency around Payne Haas.

They've put themselves into the Top 8 conversation after three rounds but face the second-hardest remaining schedule moving forward.

Punters- At TopSport, Brisbane are paying $2.6 to be the highest-placed QLD team during the home and away season. 

Canberra Raiders

Premiership: 2.4%
Top 4: 12.6%
Top 8: 41.9%
Wooden Spoon: 3.0%

We might have to rename them the Canberra Rollercoasters if they keep this up...

Round 1: Scored in the last minute to beat the Sharks 24-19.

Round 2: Thrashed by the Cowboys 26-6 without throwing a punch.

Round 3: Equalled the biggest comeback in Raiders history to beat the Titans 24-22 after being 22-0 behind in the first half.

The Canberra Raiders lead the NRL in tackle breaks (37.3 per game) and offloads (13.7 per game). They're playing a relatively expansive style which does play into the moments of brilliance followed by poor periods shortly after. 

At 41.9% to make the Top 8, the Raiders need to make sure those poor periods don't come against teams below them on the ladder too often.

Punters- At TopSport, the Raiders are paying $1.8 to play finals for a 3rd time in 4 seasons.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Premiership: 1.5%
Top 4: 5.6%
Top 8: 24.6%
Wooden Spoon: 9.9%

The 2022 NRL season started with so much hope for the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs.

Matt Burton became an instance Buy of the Season candidate, Matthew Dufty, Josh Addo-Carr and Brent Naden would add plenty to the attack, and Tevita Pangai Jr. and Paul Vaughan were the power punch the Bulldogs needed in the middle.

What has transpired over the first three weeks is the worst attack in the competition scoring 9.3 points per game.

The Bulldogs have improved on last year overall. They've been in all three games so far this season, for a start. However, the lack of attack is a growing concern with little improvement or clear plan evident through three weeks.

Punters- At TopSport, the Doggies are paying $7.5 to claim a second-straight wooden spoon.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Premiership: 5.2%
Top 4: 26.6%
Top 8: 61.7%
Wooden Spoon: 1.5%

The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks kicked the season off amongst the teams expected to jostle for position at the bottom of the Top 8. There is always a group that spends the whole year moving in and out of the finals spots. However, it looks as though the Sharks will be a prominent feature in the top half of the ladder through to the end of Round 25.

Currently 3rd in the standings and at 61.7% to make the Top 8, the Sharks have been one of the most impressive teams across the opening three rounds. The expectation is for them to only get better as the spine develops and Cameron McInnes' role within the side grows.

Nicho Hynes has been absolutely superb. He has exceeded the expectations of even the most optimistic Sharks fans who thought he might need time to develop into a consistent half. Developing alongside Matt Moylan isn't something many wanted to see let alone thought could work either.

The draw has been kind to start and the Sharks have the Knights and Tigers to come over the next fortnight. Still, they're doing what they need to do and picking up valuable points against teams also hoping to float around the Top 8.

Punters- At TopSport, the Sharks are paying $1.4 to qualify for finals in 2022.

Gold Coast Titans

Premiership: 1.8%
Top 4: 11.8%
Top 8: 39.0%
Wooden Spoon: 4.2%

The opening three rounds are close to what you would expect from a young football side.

The Gold Coast Titans came out firing in Round 1 but couldn't quite get the job done against an Eels side filled with finals experience.

Round 2's win didn't come easy and the Titans never looked entirely comfortable playing with a lead. However, a handful of moments of brilliance got them over the line in the end.

Failing to close out a 22-0 lead shortly before halftime in Round 3 is a loss the likes of Toby Sexton, AJ Brimson and Jayden Campbell will learn from in just their second game together in the spine.

Despite playing finals football last year, 39% to do it again feels right for a club that only won ten games and introduced a new and inexperienced spine for this one. 

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Premiership: 9.9%
Top 4: 33.8%
Top 8: 70.1%
Wooden Spoon: 0.8%

It's all looking very familiar for the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles to start 2022. They were poor to open 2021 before flying up the ladder from Round 5 onward. It took an ugly win in the rain over the Bulldogs to get their first competition points of this season - again, similar to the win over Round 5 last year.

However, Tom Trbojevic has been there all along this time around. Being without their best player isn't an excuse for their decidedly average start to the season. Des Hasler's side simply hasn't been up to it and they don't look anything like the 14% premiership winners they were heading into Round 1. By no means out of premiership contention at 9.9%, the Sea Eagles have a lot of work to do if they're to improve on last season. 

Punters- At TopSport, Manly are paying $12 to bring the premiership back to the northern beaches for a 9th time in 2022. 

Melbourne Storm

Premiership: 17.1%
Top 4: 61.8%
Top 8: 87.9%
Wooden Spoon: 0.1%

It hasn't been an easy start for the Melbourne Storm in 2022. Losing Christian Welch for the season in Round 1 is a loss that can't be summed up in numbers. Sure, he's a valuable metre-eater and a big part of how the Storm move the ball through the middle, but it's the little things off the ball and off the field that will be missed.

Brandon Smith has spent time on the sidelines as well while Harry Grant missed Round 3 stuck in home isolation. 

We're yet to see anything close to the best of the Storm in 2022. Still, they've won two of their three games and the signs of another strong season are clear. Lock them into the Top 8. The Top 4, too. Only the Panthers are above them in the premiership chances and it's unlikely anybody leaps the Storm any time soon. 

Newcastle Knights

Premiership: 3.3%
Top 4: 20.1%
Top 8: 52.9%
Wooden Spoon: 2.1%

It's all looking up for the Newcastle Knights so far this season. 

Their win over the Roosters in Round 1 caught everybody by surprise before they made the most of facing an awful Tigers outfit in Round 2.

The final 38-20 score in their loss to the Panthers doesn't do the Knights performance justice. They gave a solid account of themselves and their Top 8 credentials before Mitchell Barnett's brain snap in the 32nd minute reduced the Knights to 12 men for the rest of the game.

Jake Clifford has been excellent to start the year and his partnership with Adam Clune is developing nicely. 

"With a full preseason and no questions over his standing in the side, Clifford is putting the glimpses of potential we've seen in recent years into action to be one of the best-performing players so far this season." - Jake Clifford: Newcastle's Knight In Shining Armour

To add to the optimism is the fact Kalyn Ponga has missed two of the three games and was largely ineffective in the one he did play. If he can return to the field and hit the ground running, the Knights can further improve on their 52.9% to play finals football again in 2022.

Punters- At TopSport, the Knights are paying $2.1 to play finals for a third-straight year.

North Queensland Cowboys

Premiership: 0.8%
Top 4: 5.1%
Top 8: 23%
Wooden Spoon: 9.4%

A lot of people are already questioning their wooden spoon tip for this season. 

The North Queensland Cowboys kicked off Round 1 at 22.8% to end up with the most losses. Disappointing in their 6-4 loss to the Bulldogs, that 22.8% appeared justified - perhaps even unders.

However, two big wins later and the Cowboys are down to 9.4% to finish 16th and up to 23% to reach the Top 8.

Todd Payten's methods have been questioned. Playing Tom Dearden ahead of Scott Drinkwater is one decision many argued but Payten now appears to have been bang on the money. How he uses Jason Taumalolo has been a point of contention for 12 months but Round 3 may have given us an indication of the hulking Tongan's role moving forward in his career.

There is still a lot to learn about the Cowboys. It's not yet clear what is real about this team and what isn't. What is becoming clear though is that they won't be in the wooden spoon conversation for long.

Parramatta Eels

Premiership: 11.4%
Top 4: 45.4%
Top 8: 79.5%
Wooden Spoon: 0.3%

Is there a more Parramatta Eels start to the season than making a game much harder than it needed to be (Round 1 - W v Titans), losing a game they were expected to win and could have won once or twice throughout the 80 minutes (Round 2 - L v Sharks), and playing out a thriller against one of the best teams in the competition (Round 3 - W v Storm)?

The usual 'this is the year we break the drought' chat circulated before Round 1 when the Eels kicked off as a 7.7% chance of lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy. A very Eels-like three weeks followed but they have jumped up to 11.4% after Round 3.

Like the last three years, there are good signs. The Eels are stacked and can beat anybody on their day. It's consistently having those days that has been the issue and that doesn't seem to have been fixed just yet.

Punters- At TopSport, the Eels are paying $3.8 to make their first Grand Final since 2009. 

Penrith Panthers

Premiership: 22.1%
Top 4: 79.0%
Top 8: 95.5%
Wooden Spoon: 0.0%

We can't make too many sweeping judgements about the Penrith Panthers outside of the fact they are very, very good. At 95.5% to make the Top 8 and current premiership favourites at 22.1%, three weeks without Nathan Cleary has done little to dampen the hype around this group looking for back-to-back premierships.

Isaah Yeo is making a claim for best lock in the game after taking control of the side in Cleary's absence. Sean O'Sullivan is proving to be a capable backup and the pack has managed to deal with a handful of injury issues already.

With Cleary expected to return in Round 4 for Penrith's clash against the South Sydney Rabbitohs, we might start to learn about how high this team can go in 2022.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Premiership: 12%
Top 4: 45.6%
Top 8: 79.6%
Wooden Spoon: 0.4%

It doesn't get much harder than playing the Panthers, Storm and Roosters across the opening four rounds but the South Sydney Rabbitohs are getting through it relatively well.

While at risk of having just one win to their name after Round 4, the Rabbitohs have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the competition. As their attack starts to ramp up and Lachlan Ilias grows more comfortable as a first-grade halfback, the draw is going to be there for the Bunnies to pick up wins and climb the ladder.

We saw how good this team can be throughout their 28-16 win over the Roosters. The six-week stretch against the Dragons, Bulldogs, Tigers, Sea Eagles, Broncos and Warriors from Round 5 to 10 is where we might see it all come together over a longer period. 

St. George Illawarra Dragons

Premiership: 0.5%
Top 4: 4.3%
Top 8: 22.2%
Wooden Spoon: 10.6%

The St. George Illawarra Dragons have provided us with a fairly good indication of their best and worst already this season. Impressive despite losing to the Panthers in Round 2 and simply awful while being thrashed by the Sharks in Round 3, the Dragons look a cut above the current wooden spoon favourites but a tier below the teams fighting for a finals spot. 

Of the six teams below 50% but above 20% to reach the Top 8, only the Bulldogs have looked worse across the opening three rounds. What does work in the Dragons' favour is that they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NRL.

Anthony Griffin has some tinkering to do with his roster before landing on his best 17. Injuries haven't helped but a handful of holes in the roster are glaring and will need fixing up before opposition teams exploit them every week. 

Sydney Roosters

Premiership: 10.4%
Top 4: 38.9%
Top 8: 74.7%
Wooden Spoon: 0.7%

The 2022 NRL season started without the Sydney Roosters as they failed to get off the bus for the season opener. Better in their Round 2 win over the Sea Eagles, the Roosters never really looked in the game to lose to the Rabbitohs 28-16 in Round 3.

It's not panic stations for the Roosters. After all, a lot of this team is returning from long-term injuries and getting up to full speed and developing combinations with new players around them will take weeks. There have been enough good signs throughout the poorer overall performances to be encouraged by, too.

Sam Walker and Luke Keary, in particular, still have a long way to go in their development as a halves pairing and that will open up further opportunities for James Tedesco to dominate down the edges. 

Don't worry about the Roosters. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Roosters are paying $2.5 to finish top 4. 

New Zealand Warriors

Premiership: 0.7%
Top 4: 3.4%
Top 8: 17.4%
Wooden Spoon: 12.7%

The New Zealand Warriors won their first game of the season in beating the Wests Tigers 16-12 in Round 3.

It is one of the worst winning performances in NRL history and all the proof you need to show that not all competition points are created equal.

The Warriors have two points, the same as the Rabbitohs, Roosters and Sea Eagles among others but aren't anywhere near those teams in terms of prior performance or potential. 

Shaun Johnson's injury hasn't helped but hasn't been made any easier by the fact Nathan Brown doesn't know who he wants to play in the halves each week. The attack is too lateral despite the Warriors fielding one of the best-looking middles on paper in the competition. Little things like Rocco Berry looking every bit like a right side centre but playing on the left while career left centre, Euan Aitken, plays in the backrow is putting a low ceiling on this playing group.

The Warriors started the season at 29% to reach the Top 8 but that is already into 17.4%. Worryingly, the Kiwi club faces the hardest remaining schedule of all 16 teams.

Wests Tigers

Premiership: 0.0%
Top 4: 0.5%
Top 8: 5.5%
Wooden Spoon: 36.3%

The Wests Tigers' first half against the Knights in Round 2 was always going to take some beating for the worst 40 minutes of the season, but they did it only a week later.

With the Warriors handing them two competition points on a plate in Round 3, the Tigers fumbled their way to a mind-numbing loss. Not only were the Warriors not up for winning the game themselves, but they also spent ten minutes defending with only 12 men only for the Tigers attack to barely threaten the line.

Luke Brooks receives unfair criticism but his inability to take control of the side - particularly throughout the period against 12 defenders - sums up where it has all gone wrong for him as a player and the Tigers as a team to start the year. 

Michael Maguire barely kept hold of his job over the summer and will do well to still be in the coach's box in a month or two. The Tigers are deserving favourites for the wooden spoon through three rounds.

Punters- At TopSport, the Tigers are wooden spoon favourites and are paying $1.9 to collect that 'honour' in 2022. 

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