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Betting Ahead: Mining The Top Try Scorer Market For Gold

The top four teams crossed the line for fun last year and we saw more tries than ever before throughout 2021. Alex Johnston topped the list with 30 meat pies ahead of Tom Trbojevic (28), Jason Saab (26), Josh Addo-Carr (23) and Reuben Garrick (23).

The record books needed re-writing every week, but with the top of the ladder looking a little bit more congested in 2022, there's an opportunity to spy some value within TopSport's Top Try Scorer market.

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Tom Trbojevic - $9

Tom Trbojevic played out one of the best individual seasons of all time in 2021 to finish up with 28 tries (2nd-most in the NRL). The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles fullback opens up as the favourite at TopSport to win the Ken Irvine Medal in 2022 though his teammates also stand out when looking down the list of potential top try scorers.

Trbojevic had a field day barging over the line one-off the ruck in good ball areas last year. It's not a position you typically find fullbacks, but Trbojevic isn't your typical fullback. He was able to use his size and speed to isolate defenders and crash over the line. It's something a little bit different, but sure to be on the scouting report this year.

Similarly, Melbourne provided the rest of the NRL with a blueprint on how to at least minimise his influence. In short: The edge defence can defend on the 45-degree and slide when the Sea Eagles go wide in exit sets, giving up yardage but not the line break. 

Des Hasler needs to find different ways to beat the best defensive teams in the competition. The game plan will have to involve Trbojevic, but it doesn't necessarily mean he will have the ball. 

The Play- Outside of 'Turbo' both Jason Saab ($16) and Reuben Garrick ($21) represent strong betting value, and finished 3rd and 5th on the try scorer list in 2021, with 26 and 23 respectively. With Trbojevic sure to be a focus of the defence in 2022, the Manly wingers will more than likely be presented with more opportunities to score. 

Whether he's used as a decoy or to throw the final pass, it doesn't matter what side of the field he is on. Trbojevic pops up on both sides and Manly scored their tries right across the field last season.

Saab's super-speed puts him in a position to capitalise on breaks through the middle as he pushes up in support. Teams typically prefer to go right to left in their attack and he is still being underused as an aerial threat - something Hasler should look to exploit more this season.

Manly's left wing is one of the most prolific areas for points on a footy field right now and Saab presents as a value option for top try scorer in 2022.

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Daniel Tupou - $26

From one left wing to another, Daniel Tupou continues to be one of the most underrated players in the NRL. Every year he flies under the radar as a top winger, snubbed from State of Origin in favour of younger talent still learning their craft.

He scored 15 tries last year within a Sydney Roosters attack that played without Luke Keary and with James Tedesco moving away from his most effective spots on the field. With Keary back and Tedesco likely to take possession close to the line down the left channel just as he did in 2020, Tupou looks set to benefit. 

The veteran winger is a strong ball-carrier, acrobatic finisher and one of the best aerial options in the game.

A five-minute stint against the Dragons in Round 23 last year provides us with all we need to know. First, he collects a pass off his ankles before dotting down in the corner. Five minutes later he's in the air bodying Mikaele Ravalawa off the ball and falling over the line with the ball in hand.

He can cross the line in multiple ways and will have the creators inside him in Keary and Tedesco working their magic.

The Play- It could be wise to get some Daniel Tupou in your pocket, and he's paying $26 at TopSport. The Roosters are a sleeping giant and performed admirably in 2021 with key players falling over with long-term injuries every other week last season. They look primed for a run at the Top 4 in 2022. They scored 25.4 points (5th) per game last season without Keary who spent the summer as the leading voice and on-ball leader of the attack. While Keary may take some time to get up to speed physically, his smarts will get him through the early stages of the season and Tupou has the talent to finish even half a chance.

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Latrell Mitchell - $51

So, we've already covered the fact that Trbojevic isn't your typical NRL fullback.

Well, Latrell Mitchell isn't either.

If there is one player in a #1 jersey that can emulate Trbojevic's try-scoring success close to the ruck in good ball areas, it's Mitchell. He started to put himself in that position towards the end of last season and we can expect him to do the same to start this one.

He's also a good chance at seeing more opportunities to run the football out wide.

Adam Reynolds has left Redfern with Cody Walker taking over a lot of the organisational and on-ball duties. That will more than likely move him closer to the middle of the field more often, opening up space for Mitchell to run riot on the edges.

Where he was often a link man with his super hands flicking the ball wide under pressure, Mitchell should see a little bit more early ball out wide in 2022. He has been playing fullback for two years but he's still the best centre in the game and the Rabbitohs can explore different ways to use him in centre-like positions.

The Play- Even if the Rabbitohs adopt the same approach as last season, Reynolds' departure will see Mitchell left with more responsibility within the attack. He scored 13 tries in 17 games last season including eight in his last eight games. With more ball and in the form he finished 2021 in, at $51 Mitchell shapes as a top try scorer smokey heading into Round 1.

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.

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