These days there’s a variety of individual player markets to bet into ranging from the Brownlow Medal, which remains the league's most popular, through to even speculating upon which players might become All-Australians. 

However perhaps the most advantageous individual market to bet into is the Coleman Medal as this is the rare award that has no grey area. 

Unlike all other AFL accolades the Coleman is a black and white proposition: Candidate kicks the most amount of goals in the home and away season, he wins the award. Simple as that. The Coleman doesn’t suffer from outside party influence or interpretation which for a gambler is significantly helpful. 

We’ve written about some of the themes that have defined Coleman medalists in recent years and today we’ll speak to a trio of marksmen who represent good early betting value. 

Let’s get to it. 

RELATED: Betting Ahead- Hunting Value In The AFL's Wooden Spoon Market

Lance Franklin $11-$17

Boring? Please. While Buddy might have just turned 35 and has no less than 318 games under his belt, this is rare time when the legendary forward isn’t starting the season as Coleman favourite which is just one of the reasons why he represents solid betting value. 

Last year his 2.83 goals per game ranked 2nd in the league behind only Harry McKay, who of course won the medal. His 61.4% goal accuracy was at a career high, and improved for a 4th straight season, while his shots on goal and score involvements per game both remained at an elite level. 

The Play- Don’t be put off by Buddy’s age or the hunt for a ‘sexier’ Coleman option. Buddy’s still an absolute star, he’s just come off a complete pre-season while the Swans are primed to win a heap of games and score a lot of points. 

TopSport is currently offering odds of $11 about him becoming just the 4th player to ever win a handful of Coleman medals. Do also keep an eye on Betfair, as Franklin’s Coleman price has traded at around the $17 mark there.  

Aaron Naughton $13

Not since Simon Beasley in 1985 has a Bulldog won the Coleman but in Aaron Naughton they absolutely have their best chance in 2022. 

Naughton is the spearhead of an offensive juggernaut that’s supercharged by one of the league’s most loaded midfields. Their +7.2 inside50 differential last season provided Naughton with a heap of opportunities hauling in 80 marks inside-50 (second only to Tom Hawkins) while he was one of just 5 players in the league to register at least 80 scoring shots. 

What did, and what’s continually let Naughton down is his kicking for goal with his 48% accuracy last season dropping sharply from the 68.2% he notched up the season prior. 

The Play- While your investment here may be a bit nailing-biting owing to Naughton’s inaccuracy, you can rest assure he’ll have a tonne of opportunities while his club’s early season fixture is also fairly generous which could even prompt some early profit chances. At TopSport he’s currently paying $13. 

Tom Papley- $67-$100

Back to the Swans and to someone who can usually be found at Buddy’s feet creating absolute mayhem around goal. 

Papley is one of the league’s pre-eminent small forwards and in his breakthrough All-Australian season last year graded out as elite in 6 of the league’s 7 offensive categories. Where he struggled a little was goal accuracy however that’s largely down to the fact so many of his opportunities are non-set shot chances. 

While small forwards like him never win the Coleman, Papley could be an exception and someone to keep an eye on, if only for trading purposes, especially if he can get an early jump on his competitors. 

He last year produced 70 total scoring shots for the first time in his career and which was just 21 short of what McKay won the Coleman with. If he can add at least 10 more scoring shots on the season, and in the process clean up his accuracy, he can at least put himself in the reckoning. An improved, potentially premiership-ready Swans outfit will also help mightily on that front.  

The Play- Get some $67 about Papley in your pocket. That’s his current price at TopSport, while he’s traded at as much as $140 at BetFair. 

Did you enjoy this article? Join our free mailing list to get the best content delivered straight to your inbox, or join the conversation by leaving a comment below or on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.