Betting Lessons From The NRL's Opening Round
Last updated: Mar 15, 2022, 5:13AM | Published: Mar 15, 2022, 5:11AMThe footy is back and those that took their place in front of the TV played a role in record-breaking viewership numbers over Round 1.
And who said we needed to see points pile up to be entertained?
Five teams failed to crack double digits, five underdogs won their games straight up, and six of the eight games finished Under the points total in an exciting opening to the 2022 NRL season.
RELATED: Check out all of our updated NRL season projections
Underdogs back in business?
Despite being exactly what a lot of people expected and it looking likely after one round 1, it's too early to be making sweeping judgments of closer games in 2022.
The NRL took half a step back on their poorly thought-out rule changes and reintroduced penalties for an infringement inside the 40-metre line. The result was the lowest average margin of any round (excluding the Grand Final) since the start of last year.
Following two years of boring blowouts, Round 1 in 2022 ended up being the first round since the beginning of 2020 not to feature a 24+ winning margin.
Struggling teams now have the benefit of a relieving penalty to get out of their own end. If not a penalty, the threat of a penalty speeds up the ruck and stops defending players from shooting out of the line.
Where we saw defending players laying in the ruck and creeping over the 10-metre line with little punishment last season, we're already seeing what just the threat of a penalty can do to how teams defend exit sets.
Penalties aren't the sole reason for five underdogs winning straight up this week, but they certainly helped the games continue to be a contest.
Panthers 28 ($2.09) def. Sea Eagles ($1.77)
Raiders 24 ($1.98) def. Sharks ($1.85)
Broncos 11 ($3.61) def. Rabbitohs 4 ($1.30)
Knights 20 ($5.62) def. Roosters 6 ($1.13)
Bulldogs 6 ($2.17) def. Cowboys 4 ($1.72)
The biggest result of the weekend came on Saturday afternoon as the Knights dominated a Roosters side most expected to win comfortably at home.
Newcastle dominated possession in the first half (58%) and kept the home side to only a penalty goal before turning the screws and winning the yardage battle by almost 400 metres on their way to a 20-6 win.
Jake Clifford and Adam Clune linked up exceptionally well behind the dominant pack but most encouraging though is how little influence Kalyn Ponga had on the result. They did it without him and will only get better when he hits his straps.
Among 'The Mathematical Chances' of making the Top 8 before Round 1 at 31.2%, the Knights are up to 43.2%, just behind the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks at 43.9%.
Punters- At TopSport, Newcastle's Round 1 win has pushed them into $2.3 to make finals for a third-straight season.
Points at a premium
Should the trend of closer games continue, we can expect the Total Points to finish Under the line for a few weeks to come.
Six of the eight games finished Under the total in Round 1. The Canberra Raiders' 24-19 last-gasp win over the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks ticked Over the total by 0.5 points with the Parramatta Eels and Gold Coast Titans the only two teams contributing to a match significantly Over the total.
In fact, the two teams forgot to defend throughout the first half as they combined for 48 points.
Notably, only one set restart was waved across the 80 minutes. That came in the first half with one other penalty. In the second half, however, the whistle started to blow a little more often with seven penalties awarded and only one try being scored.
It's a trend to keep watching over the coming weeks.
Punters- Stats Insider is already indicating an 11% edge on the Rabbitohs covering against the Storm this Friday night. At TopSport that line has moved from 8.5 into 7.5.
Trbojevic Watch
Waxing lyrical about Tom Trbojevic became a monthly feature here throughout the 2021 season so it's only fair that we make mention of his struggles to start 2022.
He has the "it's only Round 1" excuse and the bonus of "he played the best defensive team in the competition" to further dismiss his disappointing Round 1 performance. Still, he failed to make an impact on the game. As it did last year, his failure to put the team on his back ended in a Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles defeat.
Trbojevic ran for only 157 metres on Thursday night. He failed to hit that number only twice throughout the 2021 regular season against the Knights in Round 12 (123m) and after the Storm targeted him for the full 80 minutes in Round 21 (153m). Both games ended in defeat.
It isn't all down to Trbojevic this week, obviously. Sean O'Sullivan kicked particularly well for the Penrith Panthers and repeatedly picked out Jason Saab in the backfield. Saab ran for only 55 metres on 13 carries as the Sea Eagles back-three combined for 312 running metres. Panthers fullback Dylan Edwards, on the other hand, collected 344 running metres on his own.
The lack of go-forward from the Sea Eagles as a whole made it difficult for Trbojevic to influence the game and they won't be dominated through the middle quite like that every week. However, Round 1 only adds to the concerns around the Sea Eagles relying too heavily on their fullback which saw them a step or two behind the genuine contenders last season.
They kicked the season off at 14% to win the premiership and remain there for now. But for how long?
Punters- Tom Trbojevic started favourite to be the NRL's top-try scorer but his pedestrian round 1 performance has seen him drift onto the 3rd line of betting. At TopSport he's currently paying $9.
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