Bills vs Chiefs Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 11, 2024
Last updated: Nov 17, 2024, 9:25PM | Published: Nov 10, 2024, 11:21PM
The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 11 action at Highmark Stadium on Monday, beginning at 8:25am AEDT.
This article features Stats Insider's prediction and tips for the Bills vs Chiefs game, as well as the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips.
Who Will Win?
Utilising advanced machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the outcome of Monday's Buffalo vs Kansas City NFL match-up 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Bills a 59% chance of beating the Chiefs at Highmark Stadium.
Bills vs Chiefs: Odds
The latest Bet365 betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Highmark Stadium are listed below:
- Head to Head: Bills $1.67, Chiefs $2.25
- Line: Bills -2.5 ($1.91), Chiefs +2.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 47 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Bet365 currently has the Bills at $1.67 and the Chiefs at $2.25.
The Bills are 2.5-point favourites against the Chiefs, with odds of $1.91 available at Bet365.
For the underdog Chiefs (+2.5) to cover the line, Bet365 offers odds of $1.91.
The over/under for total points scored is set at 47 with Bet365, which has odds of $1.91 for the over and $1.91 for the under.
According to Stats Insider's model, the bookmakers have got it right and both the Bills and the Chiefs have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 47-point over/under is expected to stay under 52% of the time.
Bills vs Chiefs: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Buffalo at $1.67 with Bet365
- Line: Chiefs +2.5 at $1.91 with Bet365
- Total Points: Under 47 at $1.91 with Bet365
Bills vs Chiefs: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Bills vs Chiefs at Highmark Stadium in Week 11 is the Bills winning 24-21.
This prediction is based on each team's average score from 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider provides full betting coverage of the Buffalo vs Kansas City game in Week 11, including data-driven predictions and the best betting tips.
For in-depth analysis from US experts,, check out Dimers' detailed Bills vs Chiefs prediction.
Bills vs Chiefs: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs Chiefs? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Buffalo's Josh Allen is the most likely player to score the first TD in Bills vs Chiefs.
Allen has an 11.9% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills QB has a 51.8% chance of reaching the end zone at any point during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Bills First TD Tips
- Josh Allen: 11.9% probability
- James Cook: 9.8% probability
- Amari Cooper: 7.2% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 7.0% probability
- Mack Hollins: 4.1% probability
Chiefs First TD Tips
- Kareem Hunt: 10.8% probability
- Travis Kelce: 7.1% probability
- DeAndre Hopkins: 6.4% probability
- Xavier Worthy: 3.9% probability
- Noah Gray: 3.4% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Bills Anytime TD Tips
- Josh Allen: 51.8% probability
- James Cook: 45.7% probability
- Amari Cooper: 36.0% probability
- Khalil Shakir: 33.9% probability
- Mack Hollins: 21.5% probability
Chiefs Anytime TD Tips
- Kareem Hunt: 48.8% probability
- Travis Kelce: 35.4% probability
- DeAndre Hopkins: 31.4% probability
- Xavier Worthy: 20.3% probability
- Noah Gray: 18.2% probability
Bills-Chiefs Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 254 passing yards, while the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for 245 yards.
Bills Starting QB
- Josh Allen: 254 projected passing yards
Chiefs Starting QB
- Patrick Mahomes: 245 projected passing yards
Bills Rushing Yards
- James Cook: 71 projected yards
- Josh Allen: 36 projected yards
- Ray Davis: 17 projected yards
Chiefs Rushing Yards
- Kareem Hunt: 73 projected yards
- Patrick Mahomes: 20 projected yards
- Carson Steele: 9 projected yards
Bills Receiving Yards
- Khalil Shakir: 67 projected yards
- Amari Cooper: 58 projected yards
- Mack Hollins: 35 projected yards
- Dawson Knox: 29 projected yards
- Curtis Samuel: 27 projected yards
Chiefs Receiving Yards
- Travis Kelce: 69 projected yards
- DeAndre Hopkins: 60 projected yards
- Xavier Worthy: 33 projected yards
- Noah Gray: 25 projected yards
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 24 projected yards
Our model updates regularly, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis before the Buffalo vs Kansas City match-up.
As always, see our Best Bets for betting tips on every NFL game, as well as predictions for a wide range of other sports.
Bills vs Chiefs: Week 11 Essential Details
The NFL Week 11 game between the Bills and Chiefs at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:25am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Monday 18 November 2024
- Time: 8:25am AEDT
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT), unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
Our Buffalo vs Kansas City predictions are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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