Bills vs Dolphins Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 4, 2023
Last updated: Oct 1, 2023, 5:02PM | Published: Sep 26, 2023, 11:48AM
The Buffalo Bills play the Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 4 action at Highmark Stadium on Monday, beginning at 4:00am AEDT.
Stats Insider's best betting tips for Bills vs Dolphins, plus the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips, are detailed in this article.
Who Will Win: Bills vs Dolphins
Using state-of-the-art computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated Monday's Buffalo-Miami NFL game 10,000 times.
Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Bills a 59% chance of winning against the Dolphins in Week 4 of the NFL season.
More: Bills vs Dolphins Match Centre
Bills vs Dolphins: Odds
The current betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Highmark Stadium are listed below:
- Head to Head: Bills $1.64, Dolphins $2.35
- Line: Bills -3 ($1.91), Dolphins +3 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 52.5 Points): Over $1.91, Under $1.91
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, bet365 currently has the Bills at $1.64 and the Dolphins at $2.35.
The Bills are 3-point favourites against the Dolphins, with odds of $1.91 currently available at bet365.
For the underdog Dolphins (+3) to cover the line, bet365 currently has odds of $1.91.
The Over/Under for total points scored sits at 52.5 with bet365, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.91 and odds for the Under at $1.91.
According to Stats Insider's model, the bookmakers have got it right and both the Bills and the Dolphins have a 50% chance of covering the line.
The 52.5-point Over/Under has a 54% chance of staying Under.
More: Super Bowl Probabilities and Odds
Bills vs Dolphins: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Miami at $2.35 with bet365 (0.1% edge)
- Line: Dolphins +3 at $1.91 with bet365 (50% probability)
- Total Points: Under 52.5 at $1.91 with bet365 (54% probability)
Our Bills vs Dolphins betting tips are based on world-class simulations and betting intelligence to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Bills have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Dolphins to win is our preferred option because of the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently available.
Making use of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is one of the keys to being profitable in the long run.
Bills vs Dolphins: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Bills vs Dolphins at Highmark Stadium in Week 4 has the Bills prevailing 27-24.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Buffalo vs Miami in Week 4, including pre-game predictions, computer tips, and live win probabilities.
Bills vs Dolphins: TD Scorer Tips
Who will score the first touchdown in Bills vs Dolphins? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Miami's Tyreek Hill is the most likely player to score the first touchdown in Bills vs Dolphins.
Hill has a 10.4% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Dolphins WR has a 48.4% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
Scroll down for our full list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.
First Touchdown Scorer Tips
Bills First TD Tips
- Stefon Diggs: 9.7% probability
- Josh Allen: 6.7% probability
- Gabe Davis: 6.5% probability
- James Cook: 6.3% probability
- Latavius Murray: 4.7% probability
Dolphins First TD Tips
- Tyreek Hill: 10.4% probability
- Raheem Mostert: 8.4% probability
- De'Von Achane: 7.7% probability
- Jaylen Waddle: 6.7% probability
- Braxton Berrios: 5.0% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips
Bills Anytime TD Tips
- Stefon Diggs: 47.1% probability
- Gabe Davis: 34.1% probability
- Josh Allen: 33.7% probability
- James Cook: 33.0% probability
- Latavius Murray: 26.7% probability
Dolphins Anytime TD Tips
- Tyreek Hill: 48.4% probability
- Raheem Mostert: 40.8% probability
- De'Von Achane: 38.7% probability
- Jaylen Waddle: 35.0% probability
- Braxton Berrios: 27.6% probability
Bills-Dolphins Projected Player Stats
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 258 passing yards, while the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa is expected to throw for 272 yards.
Bills Starting QB
- Josh Allen: 258 projected passing yards
Dolphins Starting QB
- Tua Tagovailoa: 272 projected passing yards
Bills Rushing Yards
- James Cook: 70 projected yards
- Josh Allen: 28 projected yards
- Damien Harris: 27 projected yards
Dolphins Rushing Yards
- Raheem Mostert: 62 projected yards
- De'Von Achane: 52 projected yards
- Tua Tagovailoa: 9 projected yards
Bills Receiving Yards
- Stefon Diggs: 84 projected yards
- Gabe Davis: 49 projected yards
- Dalton Kincaid: 29 projected yards
- Deonte Harty: 26 projected yards
- Dawson Knox: 24 projected yards
Dolphins Receiving Yards
- Tyreek Hill: 86 projected yards
- Jaylen Waddle: 77 projected yards
- Braxton Berrios: 30 projected yards
- Durham Smythe: 24 projected yards
- De'Von Achane: 19 projected yards
Our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting predictions before the Buffalo vs Miami match-up at Highmark Stadium.
As always, check out our Best Bets for betting tips on every NFL game, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
Bills vs Dolphins: Week 4 Preview
The NFL Week 4 game between the Bills and Dolphins at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:00am AEDT on Monday.
- Teams: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
- Date: Monday 2 October 2023
- Time: 4:00am AEDT
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise stated.
Our predictions for Buffalo vs Miami have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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