Bills vs Patriots Prediction and Preview - NFL Week 17, 2023

Last updated: Dec 31, 2023, 6:02PM | Published: Dec 26, 2023, 2:02AM

The Buffalo Bills will take on the New England Patriots in NFL Week 17 action at Highmark Stadium on Monday, commencing at 5:00am AEDT.

Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Bills vs Patriots game, as well as the latest betting odds and touchdown scorer tips, are featured in this article.

Who Will Win: Bills vs Patriots

Using state-of-the-art computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Monday's Buffalo-New England NFL match-up 10,000 times.

Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Bills a 94% chance of defeating the Patriots at Highmark Stadium.

More: Bills vs Patriots Match Centre

Bills vs Patriots: Odds

The current Betfair betting odds in Australia for Monday's NFL game at Highmark Stadium are listed here:

Head to Head: Bills $1.11, Patriots $9.80
Line: Bills -14.5 ($1.94), Patriots +14.5 ($2.04)
Total (Over/Under 40.5 Points): Over $2.08, Under $1.90

Odds via Betfair are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has the Bills at $1.11 and the Patriots at $9.80.

The Bills are listed as 14.5-point favourites against the Patriots, with odds of $1.94 currently on offer at Betfair.

For the underdog Patriots (+14.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $2.04.

The Over/Under for total points scored is set at 40.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.08 and odds for the Under at $1.90.

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Patriots (+14.5) have a 51% chance of covering the line, while the 40.5-point Over/Under has a 55% chance of staying Under.

The best site for placing bets on the Bills vs Patriots game is Betfair, where you can wager against other NFL fans instead of using a traditional bookmaker.

More: Super Bowl 2023 Probabilities and Odds

Bills vs Patriots: Betting Tips

Head to Head: Buffalo at $1.11 with Betfair (94% probability)
Line: Patriots +14.5 at $2.04 with Betfair (51% probability)
Total Points: Under 40.5 at $1.90 with Betfair (55% probability)

Stats Insider's Bills vs Patriots predictions are based on detailed modelling and betting intelligence to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.

What's better than using one of the world's best predictive analytics models to bet on the NFL? Now, you can use this helpful information to give you an edge when betting on something not to happen.

Before you get started, explore our comprehensive guide to lay betting on Betfair in Australia for expert tips and insights.

Bills vs Patriots: Prediction

Stats Insider's predicted final score for Bills vs Patriots at Highmark Stadium in Week 17 has the Bills prevailing 26-12.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Buffalo vs New England in Week 17, including pre-game predictions, free tips, and live win probabilities.

Bills vs Patriots: TD Scorer Tips

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs Patriots? The data is in.

According to Stats Insider, Buffalo's Josh Allen is the most likely player to score the first TD in Bills vs Patriots.

Allen has a 14.4% chance of getting in for six first at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills QB has a 53.1% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

Scroll down for our complete list of first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorer probabilities.

First Touchdown Scorer Tips

Bills First TD Tips

Josh Allen: 14.4% probability
James Cook: 12.7% probability
Stefon Diggs: 7.9% probability
Gabe Davis: 7.0% probability
Dalton Kincaid: 6.1% probability

Patriots First TD Tips

Ezekiel Elliott: 10.2% probability
Hunter Henry: 6.8% probability
Demario Douglas: 4.0% probability
DeVante Parker: 3.6% probability
Bailey Zappe: 3.4% probability

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Tips

Bills Anytime TD Tips

Josh Allen: 53.1% probability
James Cook: 48.5% probability
Stefon Diggs: 32.3% probability
Gabe Davis: 29.7% probability
Dalton Kincaid: 24.4% probability

Patriots Anytime TD Tips

Ezekiel Elliott: 42.3% probability
Hunter Henry: 29.1% probability
Demario Douglas: 18.2% probability
DeVante Parker: 17.2% probability
Bailey Zappe: 15.4% probability

Bills-Patriots Projected Player Stats

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 240 passing yards, while the Patriots' Bailey Zappe is expected to throw for 211 yards.

Bills Starting QB

Josh Allen: 240 projected passing yards

Patriots Starting QB

Bailey Zappe: 211 projected passing yards

Bills Rushing Yards

James Cook: 59 projected yards
Latavius Murray: 28 projected yards
Josh Allen: 18 projected yards

Patriots Rushing Yards

Ezekiel Elliott: 50 projected yards
Kevin Harris: 20 projected yards
Bailey Zappe: 10 projected yards

Bills Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs: 82 projected yards
Dalton Kincaid: 37 projected yards
Gabe Davis: 33 projected yards
James Cook: 22 projected yards
Khalil Shakir: 21 projected yards

Patriots Receiving Yards

Demario Douglas: 44 projected yards
DeVante Parker: 42 projected yards
Hunter Henry: 29 projected yards
Ezekiel Elliott: 22 projected yards
Jalen Reagor: 16 projected yards

Our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting predictions before the Buffalo vs New England match-up at Highmark Stadium.

As always, check out our Best Bets for the best tips on every NFL game, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.

Bills vs Patriots: Week 17 Preview

The NFL Week 17 game between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to commence at 5:00am AEDT on Monday.

Teams: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Date: Monday 1 January 2023
Time: 5:00am AEDT
Venue: Highmark Stadium

All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise noted.

Our Buffalo vs New England predictions have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, all curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our NFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.

If you decide to use our NFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.