Brisbane Most Probable For the 2023 AFL Premiership
Last updated: Aug 15, 2023, 12:45AM | Published: Aug 7, 2023, 7:15AM
Brisbane is the most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership.
According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, Brisbane's chances of winning the 2023 AFL premiership have increased to 23.4% following their Lions' narrow win over Fremantle in Round 21.
Brisbane is paying $7 on the Betfair Exchange to win the flag, with an implied probability of 76.34%. This means Stats Insider recommends backing Brisbane to win the 2023 AFL premiership.
According to Stats Insider's AFL expert, Brisbane's potential to host two home finals before the grand final puts them in a strong position heading towards the 2023 AFL finals.
"Brisbane is yet to lose at home this season," he said.
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"The trip to the Gabba is the hardest road trip in the AFL, so while Brisbane is our flag favourite, they also have the highest probability of any team to make the grand final at 48.1%.
"The Lions will host a qualifying final and then potentially a preliminary final two weeks later if they can finish inside the top two, which would put them in a strong position to make the 2023 AFL grand final."
Brisbane's next match is a Round 22 clash with Adelaide at the Gabba.
2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Brisbane Lions | 23.4% |
| Collingwood Magpies | 21.4% |
| Melbourne Demons | 21.1% |
| Port Adelaide Power | 14.1% |
| Carlton Blues | 7.7% |
| Geelong Cats | 4.5% |
| Western Bulldogs | 4.3% |
| Sydney Swans | 1.2% |
| Adelaide Crows | 1.1% |
All probabilities and odds listed in this article are correct at the time of publication.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
