2023 Brownlow Medal Votes: The Biggest Surprises of the Count

In one of the most controversial counts in recent memory, Brisbane on-baller Lachie Neale won the 2023 Brownlow Medal.

Claiming three votes in the final round to clinch the win, Neale finished one vote clear of Marcus Bontempelli and three clear of Nick Daicos.

Thanks to Stats Insider's predictive analytics model, which provided expected votes for every game throughout the 2023 AFL season, we can pinpoint exactly where the model's expectations differed from the umpires' final votes.

Let's take a look at where the model and the umpires disagreed throughout the 2023 Brownlow count, including that three vote game for Lachie Neale that ultimately handed him his second medal.

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Nick Daicos

Round 4

Expected votes: 1.4

Actual votes: 0

Given Nick Daicos' late season injury that ruled him out of the final three rounds of the 2023 AFL season, the second year star needed to poll votes in unexpected games to give himself a big enough of a lead that couldn't be run down. Unfortunately for Daicos, those votes didn't come in Round 4 in a 83-116 loss to Brisbane.

In a count where Daicos missed out on claiming the 2023 Brownlow Medal by just three votes, it's a game like this that decided his fate.

Lachie Neale

Round 6

Expected votes: 0 

Actual votes: 3

One of the biggest shocks of the 2023 Brownlow Medal count was Lachie Neale registering three votes in a game where he had limited impact across his 20 disposals.

Despite the Lions recording a 108-87 win over the Giants, Neale's performance didn't stand out in a match that saw teammate Charlie Cameron boot seven goals. For the opposition, Josh Kelly and Steven Coniglio gathered 41 and 38 disposals respectively.

In a tight count where every vote mattered, Lachie Neale getting an unexpected three votes was the turning point that saw him collect his second Brownlow Medal.

Jason Horne-Francis

Round 13

Expected votes: 0

Actual votes: 3

Jason Horne-Francis claiming three votes against Geelong might have flown slightly under the radar given it ultimately didn't impact the overall count, but it will go down as one of the most puzzling maximum vote games in AFL history.

Stats Insider's Brownlow Medal predictor didn't anticipate Horne-Francis would poll a vote in a match where he had just 13 touches, four of which were ineffective. Conversely, Dan Houston, who gathered a game high 31 disposals and six clearances, failed to poll a single vote, despite being judged best afield according to the AFL coaches votes.

Christian Petracca

Round 24

Expected votes: 1.7

Actual votes: 0

Although Lachie Neale's Round 24 three-vote performance sealed his win, Christian Petracca didn't register a single vote the final game was another surprising omission by the umpires.

In a performance that Sydney superstar Errol Gulden said "swung the game" in Melbourne's favour, Petracca gathered 29 disposals and booted a goal in the Demons' come from behind victory over the Swans, which Stats Insider's Brownlow Medal report expected him to register at least one vote in.

Errol Gulden

Round 24

Expected votes: 2.5

Actual votes: 1

Errol Gulden was the big surprise of the 2023 Brownlow Medal count, finishing tied in fourth with Port Adelaide's Zak Butters. 

While gaining the full three votes in the final game of the season wouldn't have been enough to see Gulden usurp Lachie Neale, he would have finished second alongside Marcus Bontempelli if his 42 disposal, two goal game was enough to gain maximum votes. Instead, he got a single vote and didn't finish on podium in the 2023 Brownlow Medal.