Can Australia actually win the Women's World Cup 2019?

This image is a derivative of Matildas.jpg licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0

When the Women’s World Cup kicks off at the Parc de Princes in Paris, it’ll mark the commencement of the most anticipated sporting event of 2019.

WORLD CUP: Group Stage Match Projections

Just as the men’s four-yearly edition thrives on having the world’s most popular sport contested by the world’s very best, all eyes will be focused on the eighth edition of Women’s World Cup, and from an Australian perspective, this tournament continues to take on even greater significance, as - unlike the men - our women’s team actually enters France with an almighty chance of actually bringing the trophy back home.

While the Socceroos have struggled terribly on the international stage, managing to qualify from the group stage just once from the five World Cups they’ve contested, our Matildas, on the other hand, have been the total opposite.

The Matildas have thrived under the bright lights, advancing to the Quarter-Finals in each of the last three FIFA World Cups, while also contesting the final of the last three Asian Cup tournaments as well.

This Matildas team, of course, is home to Samantha Kerr who many pundits will tell you is among the very best players on the planet, while in Katrina Gorry and Caitlin Foord, the team has two other players on the World Cup roster that have been named Asian Footballer of the Year.

PLAY: 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup Simulator

And, while the Matildas have worked hard to become one of the most recognisable and respected national teams in the country, a deep run in France - perhaps even a World Cup victory - would constitute a sporting achievement as significant and monumental as any other accomplishment by a country already bursting with feats of athletic excellence.

The big question, however, remains: how realistic is that possibility?

Could the Matildas actually break through and claim sport's most iconic trophy?

Most bookies are pencilling in the Australians as the sixth or seventh favourite to hoist the title with a deep Matildas run very much dependant on how quickly new coach Ante Milicic can erase so many of the distractions since former coach Alan Stajic was forced from the role. 

The team, while blessed with attacking talent, particularly in the form of Sam Kerr, is seen as quite vulnerable in defence, which has continually failed to keep clean sheets in big matches and against the big teams. 

The Matildas had a terrible result in their final tune-up over the weekend, resoundingly beaten by the Dutch, and while the Australians have been given a relatively gentle group stage including Italy, Brazil and Jamaica, the real tests will come for the Australians in the knock out stage, where yet another Quarter-Final exit would be seen as a wasted opportunity. 

The Stats Insider World Cup simulator projects Australia at a 6.3% chance to win the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup, so, who outside of the Matildas should you keep your eye on over the next four weeks?

WORLD CUP: Match Projections

FRANCE

BACKGROUND: Tournament hosts and equal betting favourites, the French women enter this World Cup with a squad boasting seven members of the all-conquering FC Lyon team who have won the UEFA Women’s Champions League six times this decade, including the last four straight. While the French haven’t had huge success internationally, what better opportunity for Les Blues to make their biggest mark as tournament hosts in 2019?

KEY PLAYER: Amandine Henry. It’s not often the star of your team is a defensive midfielder, but French captain Henry defies the typical stoic, junkyard-dog, number-six stereotype. And while Henry indeed possesses those qualities, it’s the gracefulness of the French lynchpin which fuels both the French national team as well as her incredible Lyon squad. Henry won the Silver Ball at the 2015 World Cup, as the tournament’s second best player. 

She’ll hope to go one better in 2019.

TAB Odds: $4.5

STATS INSIDER SAYS: France have a 17.3% probability of winning the World Cup. Our (Stats Insider's) second favourite squad is projected at 28% of simply making the World Cup Final.

USA

BACKGROUND: No national team in women’s soccer has a better pedigree than the Americans. They’ve won this tournament three times, and have made the final four in all seven iterations of the World Cup. They enter the 2019 World Cup ranked #1 by governing body, FIFA.

KEY PLAYER: Alex Morgan. At just 29 years of age, Morgan has already scored 101 goals for her country which is the sixth most amongst all-time American scorers. She scored just once at the 2015 World Cup, and you can be assured she has her sights set on hitting the back of the net a lot more this time around, as tournament favourite for the Golden Boot.

TAB Odds: $4.5

STATS INSIDER SAYS: Favourites and by a long way. At 24.7% the Americans are strongly tipped to take home their fourth FIFA World Cup title.

GERMANY

BACKGROUND: Other than the USA, Germany is the only team in the world to have won the World Cup on multiple occasions, lifting the trophy in both 2003 and 2007. Their vice-like grip on Women’s European football has dipped, however, not only with the rise of the French, but their streak of six consecutive continental crowns ended with the Dutch winning the 2017 European Championship. On this occasion, Germany was unable to progress beyond the Quarter Finals.

KEY PLAYER: Dzsenifer Marozsan. Many believe the Hungarian born playmaker to be the most skilled player in the world, and, who at 27, is in the very prime of her career. Another member of FC Lyon’s all-conquering squad, the number ten will very much have the hopes of Germany resting at her feet.

TAB Odds: $6

STATS INSIDER SAYS: Projected at 13.2% to win the World Cup, the Germans are 71% likely to make the Quarter-Finals, according to the Stats Insider model.

RELATED: 10,000 ways the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup could play out

ENGLAND

BACKGROUND: Not unlike England’s men, their women have actually become increasingly relevant on the international stage. The Three Lionesses enter France 2019 as a rising force in the women’s game as current holders of the SheBelieves Cup, and their scorching 2017 European Championship run still fresh in the football world's mind. And, while the English did fall to the Dutch in the Semi-Final of that tournament, it was certainly an outing that very much announced their future intentions.

KEY PLAYER: Fran Kirby. Yes, if you wondering, the Women’s World Cup also has a ‘Mini Messi’.  At 5'2", the Chelsea FC number ten was always destined for that comparison considering her size and incredible skill. Kirby has already scored 32 times from just 50 matches for Chelsea, and was once again instrumental in the Blues deep Champions League run. If she can repeat that kind of performance at this World Cup then the English will have every chance to indeed finally 'bring football home'.

TAB Odds: $7

STATS INSIDER SAYS: Projected as a 12.9% chance to bring football home, the English squad are a 99% chance to advance through their first round.

JAPAN

BACKGROUND: The Matildas' nemeses - and winner of the last two Asian Cups - Japan also enter the tournament as one of only four teams who can say they’ve won the Women's World Cup. They do, however, arrive in rather poor form, with a recent 3-1 friendly defeat to France, while being blown away 3-0 by England at the SheBelieves Cup.

KEY PLAYER: Unquestionably, Kumi Yokahoma. The Japanese striker scored four goals at the last Asian Cup, including the 84th minute Championship-winner which sunk the Matildas hopes. While this Japanese team is seen by many as being very much in a state of transition, Yokahoma is one player who’s unquestionably in her prime.

TAB Odds: $11

STATS INSIDER SAYS: The Japanese are winning the FIFA World Cup in 5.9% of our 10,000 tournament simulations.

2019 WOMEN'S WORLD CUP: Match Projections

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James Rosewarne

James is a writer. He likes fiction and music. He is a stingray attack survivor. He lives in Wollongong.

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