Can Geelong Still Win the 2023 AFL Premiership?

After three rounds of the 2023 AFL season, Geelong is the only team without a win. The reigning premiers' 0-3 start has been historically bad; they are the first team to do so since 1976.

The Cats haven't lost three games in a row since 2017, the only other time they have done so under coach Chris Scott. They would however go on to make a preliminary final that season; is there any reason to believe they won't this year?

With a number of important injuries and a drop-off in production from key players, the question remains: can Geelong still win the 2023 AFL Premiership?

MORE: 2023 AFL Futures

Geelong's Premiership Odds Are Dropping

In the first three weeks of the season, Geelong has lost to Collingwood, Carlton, and Gold Coast. This has seen Geelong's chances of winning the premiership in our AFL Futures model drop to 8.0%.

This is a significant change from our pre-season simulations.

The Cats were our AFL model's favourite to win the 2023 AFL premiership at a 23.4% probability. There was then a significant drop to second place, with Richmond at 12.2%, and Melbourne at 10%.

With these three losses, both the Magpies and the Blues have surpassed the Cats, with Collingwood our AFL futures model's most probable team to win the 2023 premiership at a 20.7% probability. Carlton sits fourth in our premiership predictions after an undefeated start to the season and is currently a 10.4% chance.

There have been a few factors that have contributed to the Cats dropping games that they would have expected to win based off their 2022 season. While their midfield production has stayed strong despite the retirement of skipper Joel Selwood, it has become less efficient.

Geelong currently averages the second most contested possessions in the league, and the second most clearances, both behind Port Adelaide. These are typically key metrics which lead to wins, but this hasn't been the case throughout the 2023 AFL season.

Despite also being ranked fifth for inside 50s, Geelong is ranked 10th for points scored. Since losing to Collingwood, Geelong has managed a shot on goal less than 50% of the time when entering forward 50.

Despite this, Jeremy Cameron is putting together a stellar season in the forward half and is currently has 11 AFL coaches votes after Round 3, which is a great return for a player in a winless team.

Cameron is flying. Should we also be keeping an eye on this Cat who's currently $1000 on the Betfair Exchange? 👀 pic.twitter.com/F55tNvRRRe

— Betfair Australia (@Betfair_Aus) April 4, 2023

When the ball goes back the other way, the Cats are struggling. 

They are averaging 96 points against – the fourth most in the AFL after three rounds. This has largely been a product of their interrupted backline.

Four-time All-Australian Tom Stewart missed the Round 2 game against Carlton, while premiership defenders Jack Henry and Jake Kolodjashnij are yet to feature in 2023. Now the Cats may be without young gun Sam De Koning this weekend, after the defender left the field against the Suns with a concussion.

Despite this poor start, our 2023 AFL model's predictions aren't ruling Geelong fully out of contention. While the club's premiership odds have taken a hit, our model is still predicting a 62.2% chance that Geelong makes finals, with a 24.9% chance of finishing in the top four.

READ: Melbourne Rise up the 2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities

The Glimmers of Hope for Geelong

While they will now have to overcome an 0-3 start, the Cats have a favourable upcoming fixture. According to Stats Insider's schedule difficulty, Geelong is still ranked as the fifth easiest in the AFL, and the next month provides a good chance to bounce back.

The traditional Easter Monday fixture against Hawthorn is a game that our simulations give Geelong a strong chance of winning. The reigning premiers have been given an 84% chance of victory, with a predicted 27-point win at the time of writing.

While Geelong's defence has been a major issue to start 2023, Hawthorn has had the opposite issue. 

The Hawks have scored the second lowest points per game of any side over the first three rounds of the 2023 AFL season, averaging 60.6 points for. Even in victory, the Hawks managed only 80 points against the Kangaroos in Tasmania.

Following this Monday, Geelong will play 2022's 17th-placed West Coast on neutral turf at Adelaide Oval for Gather Round. Next will be Sydney, in the reigning premiers' first game at home ground GMHBA Stadium for the season, followed by Essendon.

While our AFL schedule difficulty analyser assessed the game against Sydney as the hardest of these fixtures, Geelong's advantage will come from playing at home. The club lost just a single game in their home city in 2022, with a three-point loss to Fremantle in Round 7.

Their odds may now be lower, but the Cats have a great opportunity over the next month to even up their fixture before they begin playing at home again.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)