Can Geelong Win the AFL Premiership From Outside the Top Four?
Last updated: Jun 14, 2023, 12:26AM | Published: Jun 13, 2023, 1:31PM
Geelong is the most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership from outside the current top four.
According to Stats Insider's AFL futures model, despite currently sitting outside the top eight, Geelong has a 12.1% probability of winning the 2023 AFL premiership.
The Cats are on the fifth line of betting at Betfair at the $10 quote, which is an implied probability of 10%.
MORE: 2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
Stats Insider's AFL expert says that a lot of factors could see things fall in Geelong's favour come finals time.
"The Cats are currently in ninth, and despite not having our AFL strength of schedule assessor in their favour, they have Patrick Dangerfield, Max Holmes, and Mitch Duncan reaching full fitness, which bolsters their line-up significantly," he said.
"Collingwood and Melbourne are two of our model's top three most probable teams to make the top four, so even if Geelong are unable to secure a top-four berth, the Cats could still play an MCG final, then potentially face either one of those teams in a semi-final.
"Compound that with the fact that the 2023 AFL Grand Final is being played in Melbourne, and there's every chance Geelong doesn't leave Victoria for the entire finals series."
Geelong travels to South Australia to face Port Adelaide in Round 14 after the reigning premiers had a bye last week.
MORE: AFL Expert Tips - Round 14, 2023
2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Collingwood Magpies | 20.7% |
| Port Adelaide Power | 19.3% |
| Melbourne Demons | 18.2% |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.5% |
| Geelong Cats | 12.1% |
| St Kilda Saints | 5.9% |
| Western Bulldogs | 3.5% |
| Adelaide Crows | 2.9% |
| Essendon Bombers | 2.0% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
