Can the Broncos Win the 2023 NRL Premiership?

After years of lying dormant, is the sleeping giant of the NRL finally back as a real contender?

Heading into a huge Round 4 derby clash with the Dolphins, the Brisbane Broncos are undefeated and sit atop the NRL ladder.

With impressive victories under their belt, including a Round 2 XXXX Derby victory and some of the highest scoring power in the league, could this season see the Broncos finally rise to glory again after last year's false dawn?

The club sat in the top eight for 15 weeks straight in 2022, before managing just three wins in their final eight games to finish in the ninth spot.

But the Broncos of last season seem to be well and truly gone, with two victories over teams that our simulations consider to be top contenders for this year's premiership.

Will they be able to continue this early form, or are Kevin Walters' men peaking early?

MORE: Panthers Reclaim Top Position in NRL Premiership Probabilities

Taking Down Contenders Early

The Broncos have steadily climbed up our NRL futures model as they've continued to win games, which kicked off in Round 1 with a major upset.

Our simulations gave them just a 27% chance of taking down the back-to-back reigning premiers the Penrith Panthers, in a game where an upset was possible, but not expected.

The end result was a 13-12 win to the Broncos, with a late Adam Reynolds field goal sealing victory. Penrith was the second highest scoring team in 2022, averaging 26.5 points per game. This was even without halfback Nathan Cleary for nearly half the home-and-away season, who averaged the fourth most points per game (9.29).

With our model predicting a 59% chance of the total clearing 40.5 points, the Broncos' defence massively over-performed against expectations. They kept the Panthers to just two tries after they averaged 29 points in the 2022 finals.

The Panthers are still rated as the top team in our premiership predictions, equal on an 18% chance alongside the Sydney Roosters. They claimed a strong 16-10 win over the Rabbitohs, before having the bye last week.

The reigning premiers are also favourites for the minor premiership, with a 19.2% chance to finish on the top of the ladder, and an 80.2% chance to make finals. This win continues to paint the Broncos in a good light as the rounds progress.

Match Highlights 🎥 - #NRLBroncosCowboys

A stunning Broncos debut by Reece Walsh led Brisbane to a 28-16 win over the Cowboys! pic.twitter.com/ScK7GGTaet

— NRL (@NRL) March 10, 2023

In Round 2, the Broncos kept the momentum going with a strong win over the North Queensland Cowboys, who our simulations also rated as a top-four team in our premiership probabilities. The Cowboys finished third in 2022 and were knocked out in the preliminary final by the Eels. And while they lost a handful of players to the Dolphins and talented youngster Ben Condon to the Sea Eagles, the strong core of the squad stayed together for this season.

After their big win in Round 1, the Broncos came in as slight favourites in our predictions, at 53%. And while the Cowboys scored an early try, they wouldn't get over the line again until the 72nd minute, when it was far too late.

And while the Broncos were highly favoured in the Round 3 match-up with the Dragons, with our simulations predicting a 72% chance of victory, their opposition got off to a fast start with three tries by the 33rd minute to take a handy lead.

But the Broncos showed just how potent their attack can be, piling on six second-half tries, including multiple to Reece Walsh and Kotoni Staggs. Their 40-point showing is the highest score of the 2023 season so far.

These three wins now have them sitting at a 68.6% chance of making finals, and a 37.4% chance of finishing in the top four. But this could rise even further after this week.

READ: NRL Predictions: How Far Can the Dolphins Go In 2023?

A Date With Dolphin Destiny

Newcomers the Dolphins have been the fastest risers in the NRL, and are one of only three undefeated teams after the first three weeks. After defeating the Roosters, Raiders and Knights and scoring the most of any club to this point, there's a case to be made that the Dolphins are becoming real contenders.

The Dolphins have defied expectations, starting as the team most likely to have the most losses according to our futures model, but after taking down one of 2023's premiership contenders and keeping up their good form, they could also cause trouble for the Broncos.

The Broncos go into the match as favourites in our simulations, with a 71% chance of victory. Currently the two highest scoring teams in the league, our model also likes a total over 43.5 points, with both teams predicted to score at least three tries each.

Now with a 5.7% chance to win the premiership, and a favourable match-up with the lowly Tigers to come in Round 5, a win here could be the key to unlocking the Broncos' path to the 2023 Grand Final.