Can the Parramatta Eels Make the 2023 NRL Finals?
Aug 9, 2023, 7:34AM
Heading into the final four rounds of the 2023 NRL season, the Parramatta Eels are less likely to make the finals than secure a top eight spot.
According to Stats Insider's NRL futures model, the Eels have a 44.7% chance of making the NRL top eight after recording a 26-20 win over the Dragons in Round 22.
The Stats Insider predictive model's assessment of Parramatta's chances contrasts with the current odds at PointsBet, where the Sharks are priced at $3.15 to make the finals.
Stats Insider's fair odds are at $2.24 for the Eels to make the top eight, meaning the model has found an 13% edge.
According to Stats Insider's NRL schedule difficulty model, the Eels currently face the most challenging end-of-season fixtures, including two of their next three games against the top two teams on the ladder.
According to Stats Insider's NRL expert, the Eels' challenging run home will pose difficulties in their attempt to secure a top-eight position.
"The Eels face an uphill battle to make the 2023 NRL finals," he said.
"They head into this weekend's matchup with the Broncos with a 32% winning probability, before taking on the Roosters and finally the Panthers in Round 26 in their final game of the season.
"They're only likely to start as favourites in one of those final three matches, and given they currently sit outside the top eight, it's going to be an arduous task forcing their way back into finals contention."
In their Round 24 match against the Broncos, the Eels enter as the underdogs at PointsBet.
MORE: NRL Tips For This Weekend - Round 24, 2023
2023 NRL Finals Probabilities
| Team | Probability |
| Penrith Panthers | 100% |
| Brisbane Broncos | 100% |
| New Zealand Warriors | 99.9% |
| Melbourne Storm | 98.1% |
| Canberra Raiders | 86.2% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 85.1% |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 79.2% |
| Newcastle Knights | 51.0% |
| Parramatta Eels | 44.7% |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 39.6% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publication.
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(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
