Can The Roosters Keep It Rolling Against The Broncos?

In Head vs Heart, the common sense of data goes head-to-head with unbridled power of passion in a weekly battle here on Stats Insider. Sometimes we'll agree, but sometimes we won't. This week the Sydney Roosters head to Brisbane to take on the Broncos. Can Wayne Bennett's men find something against a confident looking Roosters outfit?

	The Broncos might be nursing a few injuries and sending a few young blokes out this week, but they're playing at Suncorp on Friday night. The stage is set for an upset.
	The Roosters found their groove last weekend and registered back-to-back wins for the first time since round three. SI's models are 50-50 on Brisbane even covering the spread, it might be time for Sydney to find their best footy consistently.
	Every time the Roosters get on a bit of a run, they crumble. Trent Robinson sends them out to play like a school-boy footy team and Wayne Bennett know it. He'll have something up his sleeve to cover the +4 Line at worst.
	Head isn't so sure. Jack Bird, Alex Glenn and Payne Haas join Josh McGuire, Jordan Kahu and Matt Gillett in the ever-growing Broncos injury list. Brisbane have conceded 28ppg in their last four, and they're going up against the best defensive team in the competition.
	Sending out a Baby Broncos team isn't anything new and just like all those other times, they'll surprise a few people. Young guys like Kotoni Staggs and Patrick Mogo are going to go ballistic running out onto Suncorp for the first time.
	A team ranking 9th in attack and 13th in defence will need more than youthful enthusiasm to get them going. Whilst the Broncos have won the last four at Suncorp, that will come to an end on Friday night. At best, they can hope for a close contest which may result in Unders - this happens in 59 percent of SI's simulations.
	With the number of times the Roosters cough the ball up, 13th in defence sounds just fine. In attack, Anthony Milford needs a little bit of time and space to get it all up to speed and the Sydney errors will help that along too. But Unders is something the heart can get around; trust the defence of both sides.
	Whilst true, the Roosters have also kept opponents to 12 points or fewer on six occasions including two shutouts in their last four. They're 7-3 on Unders this season, including their last 3 straight games. Tomorrow makes it four.
	It's settled then: Broncos to win and the Total Under 40.5. Easy.

Office Verdict: stay away from the line and H2H markets, take the Under!