Can the Sea Eagles Keep Their NRL Top 4 Momentum?

After a brutal three week stretch, the Manly Sea Eagles returned to the winners list with an 18-8 win the Melbourne Storm. That victory has seen the Sea Eagles up to fourth position, nipping on the heels of premiership favourites in the Broncos and Panthers.

While last week's loss to the Panthers wasn't pretty, it's the only big blemish on Sea Eagles' record at the moment. They lost to the fifth placed Rabbitohs by a golden point field goal, and couldn't be separated in the draw with the Knights.

With solid results under their belt, are the Sea Eagles the real deal in 2023 or are they set to be found out as the rounds continue on?

READ: NRL Tips for This Weekend - Round 8, 2023

How Did Manly Address Its Weaknesses?

After the win over the Storm, the Sea Eagles have moved up to a 42.4% chance to make the top eight in our NRL futures predictions. They are now the 10th most likely team to qualify for finals, just ranked behind the Raiders (43.7%) and the Warriors (49.7%).

And while it was an unusual win, with six penalties paid between both sides in a fiery affair, it showed that Manly has put some serious effort into correcting the defensive issues of weeks past.

In 2023, the Sea Eagles have been particularly weak along the left edge. 57% of tries scored against them have come from the left side, with the Panthers running rampant and putting down six from the left in the Round 6 game.

But against the Storm, led by Morgan Harper (28 tackles at 87% completion), they wouldn’t give up a single try on the left side. The Storm had their opportunities with strong off-loads deep into the Sea Eagles’ half, but they didn’t budge.

While the Storm came into the game as favourites, by the 18th minute mark the Sea Eagles upped their chances of victory to over 60% after Tom Trbojevic’s opening try and Daly Cherry-Evans’ converted penalty.

In fact, those fast starts seem to be the key to unlocking victory for Manly. All of the side’s wins (and its draw against Newcastle) have come from getting over the line first. The Sea Eagles have been unable to wrestle momentum back in their two losses so far this season.

Turbo turns on the jets ✈️ #NRLManlyStorm pic.twitter.com/bEERIzRn0s

— NRL (@NRL) April 14, 2023

The Sea Eagles may be looking stronger defensively, but there is still significant improvement to come offensively before they begin to become a true finals threat. While they are averaging 23 points per game, they’ve managed just two tries in three of their last four games.

Without their three converted penalty goals this weekend, they would have managed just 12 points again. As shown last week against Penrith, this certainly isn’t enough to cut it against the top sides in the NRL.

MORE: 2023 NRL Futures

Looking Ahead for Manly

With wins against the Storm, Eels, and much improved Bulldogs, the Sea Eagles have already racked up some impressive victories without having truly claimed a big scalp yet.

And they’ve got greater opportunity to capitalise on their fixture in the upcoming weeks, starting this Sunday against the Wests Tigers. The Sea Eagles have the eighth-hardest remaining fixture according to our Strength of Schedule simulations, with the next six weeks holding prime opportunity.

Wests come out of their first bye still winless, and the Tigers look to be a near lock for the most losses in 2023. And despite hosting the Sea Eagles this week, our simulations predict that they could still be winless.

Our predictions currently give Manly a 69% chance of victory over Wests, with a predicted score of 17-25. The Tigers have lost five of their last six matches against the Sea Eagles, including both fixtures last year.

In those past six games, the Sea Eagles have averaged 36.4 points. Expect to see Trbojevic and Reuben Garrick get over the line against one of the worst-performing defences in the NRL.

The Sea Eagles should also be eyeing off wins against the Titans (home), Raiders (away) and Knights (away) over the next six weeks. This upcoming fixture also comes with big tests against the Broncos and Sharks, but if they can continue to build confidence in the next two weeks, these will be matches that could decide how finals look in 2023.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)