No BBL franchise has ever won three-straight titles, so can the Sydney Sixers make history and become the first? They’re the current favourites with the bookies while the Stats Insider futures model is also particularly buoyant about them, installing them as a 22.6% chance to win it all- the strongest projection among the league’s eight teams.

On paper, the Sixers' bid for a third-straight crown appears well placed, especially as there’s been minimal squad turnover. The return of English all-rounder Tom Curran will help immensely while Chris Jordan also comes in early to replace injured all-rounder Carlos Brathwaite. 

Skipper Moises Henriques is freed up for the entirety of BBL|11 after being overlooked for the Ashes while all-rounder Sean Abbott should be available most of the season after the Australia A tour game. 

Personnel changes however don't always lead to good results and can often upset the balance of a team, so we’ve looked back on the Sixer’s last season to ascertain what areas the champions might need bolstering in.

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BATTING RUN RATE

One of the statistics in BBL|10 that correlated most with performance was batting run rate. The sides who occupied the top three spots on the BBL ladder had three of the top four best batting run rates, led by the Sydney Thunder with 9.14, followed by the Sixers. You can't put this down to a home ground advantage either, with both sides largely on the road all season due to the Sydney lockdown.

The Thunder and Sixers scored the most runs in BBL|10 although that's not always indicative, given sometimes sides have lower run chases, so run rate is more significant in terms of showing a side's strength. 

For the Thunder, Alex Hales (161.6), Sam Billings (142.85), Ollie Davies (152.54), Ben Cutting (156.42), Daniel Sams (188.67) and Nathan McAndrew (205.71) all had season strike rates above 140.

For the Sixers, Josh Philippe (149.41), James Vince (143.58), Moises Henriques (155), Jordan Silk (144.69) and Dan Christian (182.55) were above 140.

The Sixers' explosive batting spread is a significant strength of theirs while most importantly none of the aforementioned players have left the team. Furthermore, Henriques only played five games last season which will only strengthen their batting.

The Melbourne Stars had the third best batting run rate led by Glenn Maxwell (143.56) and Marcus Stoinis (142.44), followed by last season's runners-up Perth, who have lost English openers Jason Roy and Liam Livingstone- all departures which will have a pronounced negative effect on their title chances.

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BOWLING RUN RATE

Perth's strength has long been their bowling and ability to strangle the opposition, enabling them to have low-scoring run chases, not requiring much risk-taking with the bat. 

The Scorchers comfortably had the lowest bowling run rate, but they have lost Jhye Richardson to the Ashes squad and Fawad Ahmed – who didn’t miss a game in BBL|10 - was allowed to leave, replaced by Renegades revelation Peter Hatzoglou. Tymal Mills is a good addition to cover Richardson, so expect Perth to remain strong in this department.

The Sixers, however, had the second worst bowling run rate in the competition last season, despite being crowned champions. In fact, only the eventual wooden spooners the Melbourne Renegades faired worse in that department.

This may come as a surprise as the Sixers have spinner Steve O'Keefe who is arguably the most miserly bowler in BBL history, with his economy rate not going above 7.00 per over across the past seven seasons. O'Keefe typically bowls in the middle overs, and sometimes sneaks in an over in the power play.

Death bowlers such as Dan Christian (8.84 economy rate), Ben Dwarshuis (8.85), Abbott (9.35) and Jake Ball (11.12) were all very expensive last season. Curran's return and Jordan's addition – albeit for only the first five games – is clearly directed at addressing these issues. Both are known as death overs specialists and their success or struggles will go a long way to determining the Sixers' fate.

HISTORICAL TRENDS

Over the course of the 10 editions of the BBL, the Scorchers and Sixers have shared six titles and combined to make no less than 11 Grand Finals.

The Scorchers and Stars have made the finals in eight of 10 seasons, while the Sixers have qualified seven times. The Sixers are a constant threat benefitting from ironclad continuity across the franchise. 

TITLE DEFENCES

Across the course of the 10 editions of the BBL, only two sides have successfully defended the title beginning with Perth off the back of their BBL3 title and Sydney last season.

In fact champion teams have exhibited a tendency to fall off the cliff following their success and in five of the previous nine completed seasons we've actually seen the reigning champ miss finals entirely. Furthermore, those 9 champions have combined for an underwhelming 45-47 record in the season following their coronation. Perth are our only reference point regarding a franchise shooting for a hat-trick of titles in BBL|05, narrowly squeaking into finals before being immediately dispatched. 

Thankfully for Sydney they’ve for the most part been able to maintain their championship winning squad while simultaneously addressing their weaknesses. For these reasons they loom as a massive threat to claim the BBL’s first-ever three-peat.

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