Can West Coast's Underwhelming Season Be Salvaged?

The West Coast Eagles are one of the league’s great enigmas.

With eight wins on the season, they sit 7th on the ladder, and according to the Stats Insider futures model, are a 63.1% chance of making finals for a 7th-straight year.

Yet season 2021 has seen them produce some of their shakiest form over the last four years, and while they’ll indeed likely be among September's participants once again, their current 2.6% premiership projection is more illustrative of a team with plenty of question marks.  

Firstly, it’s imperative to understand that West Coast’s injuries have been on the extreme end this season.

Premiership players Elliot Yeo, Shannon Hurn and Norm Smith medalist Luke Shuey have combined for just 15 of a possible 42 games, while reigning All-Australian Liam Ryan has suffered through a frustrating cameo season, played just 9 games and produced career-low numbers across the board. 

Tom Barrass, Josh Kennedy and Tim Kelly have all missed multiple games, while Grand Final hero and 4-time All-Australian Jeremy McGovern has only been present in six of West Coast's last seven matches. 

The injuries have been as brutal than any club has faced this season, yet it's all too easy to lay West Coast's problems all at the feet of player availability. 

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The Eagles employ a style that's built on possession, controlling the ball behind the play and aiming to manipulate the opposition through the middle, so that when it is time to move the ball, they're able to create the space they want to occupy, and move directly through the centre.

As a result, it’s fundamental that the Eagles have a strong presence aerially in defence, while also having their best ball users available through the middle.

However in this competition, the best teams are able to cover their missing players, and particularly in such a 'plug-and-go' style that the Eagles use, the absences should be able to be compensated.

Let’s keep in mind this was a team that won the 2018 Premiership without Andrew Gaff and Nic Naitanui.

One could argue that in 2021, Harry Edwards and Alex Witherden were particularly like-for-like replacements without much of a drop-off, while Luke Foley, Luke Edwards and Xavier O’Neill did well with genuine opportunities.

Oscar Allen has had to be adaptable at both ends, Jake Waterman has had a far bigger role with Jarrod Brander missing five games, while the likes of Jack Redden, Jack Petruccelle and Dom Sheed have also stood up.

Therefore, it’s fair to judge the Eagles as having been underwhelming this season when considering the structures have remained the same, and the roles of key players have, for the most part, been filled in by experience.

The Eagles have just two wins against fellow top-8 teams this season with home victories over both Port and Richmond.

Last week's 55-point home thumping by the Bulldogs, coupled with their 97-point capitulation to Geelong in Round 6 have been highly concerning, with the club has also dropping games to the Giants, Essendon and St Kilda.

What's been evident, particularly recently in their loss to the Dogs, is that the Eagles have sorely lacked urgency and variation in the way it plays.

In fact, it was only in their stirring, come-from-behind win over the Tigers where the Eagles appeared to be at their damaging best in transition, and even then, that was only over a highly impactful 15-minute burst. 

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What's perhaps most concerning about these Eagles is that their dominance has been confined to the stats sheet rather than the actual scoreboard, with a strong sense of hollowness creeping in. 

Sure, the Eagles are ranked first in the competition for kicks, marks and contested grabs, which are all typical of a team of a club who continues to want to the ball in swiftly to their dangerous key forwards. 

They're known for their offensive efficiency, and are once again proving to be one of the best, converting a league-best 26.5% of their inside-50s into goals.

Yet the team’s lack of ambition is most relevant when you take a simple step back from this statistic.

While West Coast has never been a high inside-50 team, in fact they ranked 7th when they most recently won the flag, their current rank of 17th means they while they are good at turning those forays into goals, they really ought to be as their opportunities are few and far between. Last week against the Dogs was the third time this season they've failed to crack 40 inside-50s. 

Simply put, the team’s efficiency in attack is a mirage as they’re not getting the ball in often enough for it to be of relevance.

And then there’s the defensive side of the equation, where the previously known web that has proven to be effective has clearly fallen down.

In the previous three years, West Coast conceded the sixth-least points on average in the competition, yet this season have conceded the eighth-most.

Even worse is the frequency in which Adam Simpson’s team is falling down defensively.

In terms of goals conceded per inside-50, the club was previously ranked high in that realm. In fact, 2018 saw them concede a goal from just 21% of opposition inside-50s, a number which it matched again in 2019, and which sat at an even more impressive 19.5% last year.

This season however, it's skyrocketed, with the Eagles giving up a major on 24.7% of opposition entries ranking them 5th-last in the league. 

As things stand, the Eagles are maintaining possession and floating by, yet they're routinely being exposed by the league's best, and as we saw against the Dogs and Geelong, sometimes quite spectacularly.

Of course, with the bulk of their injury list returning, there is an upside for the 4-time champs.

The expectation will be that the midfield group will return to full fitness shortly, while their patented two-way running will help keep pressure on the opposition pushing forward.

A soft draw over the next five weeks should also help, with assignments against Sydney, North Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda and Collingwood providing a strong opportunity to keep their league-best finals streak alive. 

The Eagles will very likely occupy a September seat come September, yet it's another question entirely as to whether they'll be able to fire any shots once there. 

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