Canberra Raiders: A Captivating 2019 Season
Last updated: Oct 4, 2019, 1:43AM | Published: Oct 3, 2019, 8:08PM
The hype machine fueling the Green Machine's run to the NRL Grand Final is widely expected to run out of gas on Sunday, but it has been one of the great rides in recent years.
From frustrating faders to the people's team built on resilience and defence, the turnaround at the Canberra Raiders has been an enthralling, and still somewhat surprising, storyline all season.
The Raiders had a reputation of being an exciting team, but one that ultimately fell short of achieving anything meaningful. Scoring points was never a problem. They averaged an NRL-high 22.5 points per game in 2018 while failing to qualify for the Top 8. If there's ever been a Raiders-like season, it was last year.
They've turned a corner this season, though.
Multiple.
This side is one of the best in the competition defensively, and while their attack isn't quite what it was, the Raiders are still finding enough points to beat the elite teams and make it this far.
It's Canberra's first Grand Final since 1994. If you ask some of their younger fans that missed out on the glory years of the club, they'll tell you that they thought this day might never come.
But here we are.
No matter the result on Sunday night, the 2019 season is a resounding success for coach Ricky Stuart and his Raiders.
Attack
The Raiders shaved a little off their 2018 average to score 21.2 points per game in 2019 - 4th in the NRL.
Their ability to find points and potential to pile them up in a hurry still remains. The source of Canberra's points has changed, though.
Nick Cotric, Jordan Rapana and Joey Leilua scored 36 tries between them throughout the 2018 season. The trio have contributed just 15 in 2019. Injuries have played a role, but so too has the new direction of the Raiders attack.
Nick Cotric | Jordan Rapana | Joey Leilua | |
2018 Tries | 12 | 10 | 14 |
2019 Tries | 4 | 7 | 4 |
The Raiders have scored 46% of their tries down the left edge this season. Only the Roosters (57) and Storm (53) have scored more than the Raiders' 43 down that side.
Jarrod Croker has been one of the beneficiaries scoring 13 tries this season. He's not shied away from sending teammates over the line with six try assists, and he's not finished a season with more line breaks than the 15 he has so far in 2019 since 2012. He's been on the end of some strange and often unjustified criticism in recent years, but Croker has kept the doubters quiet over the last 28 weeks.
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Jack Wighton deserves a lot of credit for Croker's improved production. He's not a traditional five-eighth. Wighton only has five try assists and his game is riddled with errors. However, he's played to his strengths well enough to play a key role in Canberra's potent left edge. It can be one-dimensional at times, but Wighton's 2,729 running metres (109m per game) is the most of all five-eighths. With that, he's averaged 3.3 tackle breaks per game to demand the attention of the defence and open up space out wide.
Taking Wighton's position at fullback, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has been a revelation. His 172 running metres per game and 11 tries for the season make for impressive reading, but it's the 24-year old's in-goal escapes that really highlight the impact he's had on the team. His five in-goal escapes are the most of any player in the competition this season. Nicoll-Klokstad isn't the fastest fullback, nor does he have the lightest feet, but his effort levels dwarf any other, and he's forged a four-year contract extension on the back of it.
The trio have played a significant part in refocusing the Raiders attack and steering it away from the somewhat overused Leipana combination on the right side, but they've had plenty of help from a trio of Englishman.
John Bateman's ad-lib style of footy and ability to create something out of nothing has been of match-winning quality. Elliott Whitehead might be the most underappreciated player in the competition with his consistency on the left edge rarely being talked about. It's Josh Hodgson that really makes the difference, though. Finally healthy following an ACL injury, the 29-year old is nudging Cameron Smith and Damien Cook for best hooker in the game honours.
In Round 17 against the Dragons, he put on a clinic in picking out the smaller man in the defence on the line.
First, he spied Cameron McInnes and Ben Hunt defending alongside each other. Knowing Hunt has a tendency to shoot out, he put Joseph Tapine one-on-one with McInnes and the big man fell over.
Later in the match, Hodgson played on the back of a quick play-the-ball, darted out of dummy half to engage the bigger Paul Vaughn at A, and once again sent a heavy over the top of McInnes.
To wrap things up, Hodgson identified the 91kg Matt Dufty in the line and Nicoll-Klokstad barely noticed the red and white speed bump on his way to the line.
He explores out of dummy half as well as any other hooker in the NRL and no player is better at executing the one-on-one steal. Hodgson is the tinkerman of the Raiders attack and determines who sees the ball and when. He adds the element of control and composure this side lacked in 2018 and will be called upon to lead from the front on Sunday night.
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Defence
Whatever happens from here, the 2019 Raiders will be remembered for their defence. The 15.2 points they concede per game is the third-fewest in the NRL and an incredible number when put alongside their efforts in recent years.
Season | Points Conceded Per Game | Total Wins |
2019 | 15.8 | 15 |
2018 | 22.5 | 10 |
2017 | 20.7 | 11 |
2016 | 19 | 17 |
2015 | 23.7 | 10 |
2014 | 25.9 | 8 |
2013 | 26 | 10 |
2012 | 22.3 | 13 |
2011 | 6 | 6 |
They kept three teams scoreless throughout the season. In their two finals matches against the Storm and Rabbitohs, the Raiders didn't concede more than 10 points in either of them.
The Rabbitohs played with 56% possession in the preliminary final while recording more running metres, linebreaks and tackle breaks than the Raiders. Souths finished on the right side of the error and penalty counts, too. Nevertheless, Canberra's defence stood up. In making 378 tackles at an 88.5% effective tackle rate, they stayed in the game to find a late match-winner - just as they did against the Storm a fortnight earlier.
New additions and career-seasons from a handful of individuals are often credited as the reason for the Green Machine's U-turn, but it's been a team effort in defence that has truly inspired this run to the Grand Final.
Conclusion
For a team like the Raiders, they really do have nothing to lose on Sunday night. They've exceeded expectations, and there is little doubt that the side will still improve beyond this season. The premiership window is only just opening up for this side. The experience gained in this run and the culture change it's generated on the defensive side of the ball will be long-lasting.
They identified the lack of mobility through the middle and made the required adjustments. It's allowed Josh Papalii to play the best season of his career and lead an unexpectedly productive pack to lay the platform for what is still a potent attack.
Running out in front of 80,000 people in the biggest game of the year with a chance to lift the Provan-Summons trophy will always produce nerves, but the pressure of expectation is off the Raiders.
They're being written off by many. The Stats Insider Model, for one. It could work in their favour, though. The longer the game goes without points on Sunday, the better Canberra will get. If they can cross the line early, well, we'd best prepare for a boilover.
They're a likeable squad, exciting to watch, and fun to root for. The story of the 2019 Raiders is one people will remember for years no matter what happens on Sunday.
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